Senate Majority Leader John Thune says Republicans will outperform the polls and keep their slim majority, even as GOP groups pull millions from struggling Senate races.
Campaigning in Fremont, Nebraska, for Sen. Pete Ricketts, Thune told Fox News Digital he is not writing off contests that have tightened or slipped as Election Day approaches on Nov. 3.
He cast several matchups as toss-ups and argued that recent polling still fails to capture the full Republican vote, the same pattern, he said, that has shown up in past cycles.
“I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs,” Thune said. “I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They're margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote.”
"I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs. I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They're margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote."
Republicans hold a narrow 53-to-47 Senate majority. The Cook Political Report has Republicans defending six toss-up seats this cycle. Outside groups have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the map, and have also started moving that money when races change.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with Thune, initially pledged $44 million to help Rep. Mike Collins topple first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia. Ossoff has led in polling and raised large sums. Earlier this month, the group shifted money out of Georgia and into Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall has fallen into an unexpected toss-up.
In North Carolina, the same group pulled back nearly all of its spending in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. Former Republican National Committee co-chair Michael Whatley is running to keep the seat. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is the opponent. Confidence in that race has cooled in public reporting as the contest has looked harder to hold.
President Donald Trump has not hidden his concern. Earlier this month he told reporters he is worried about Whatley, then backed him at a rally.
"I think he’s a great man, and I am worried about him. I hope he wins. He was a great leader for the whole Republican Party when I won, and he’d be a great senator."
Mississippi and South Carolina, once treated as safer Republican ground, have also moved in Democrats’ direction in recent assessments. That is the backdrop Thune faces as he crisscrosses the country for vulnerable incumbents and challengers.
Thune’s message was blunt: the majority survives if Republicans turn out irregular voters and still win the middle. He tied resources directly to that job.
"Turnout's going to be a big part of whether or not we're successful or not. And in every state I've been in, that is a clear-eyed focus of our candidates. That's where resources are being invested. And I think that could be the difference for us come Election Day on whether or not we win a lot of these close races or not."
He went further on the polls themselves.
"And I think that we're gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election Day."
That is the bet. Low-propensity Trump voters have to show up. Persuadable voters in the middle have to break Republican. Party-aligned PACs are already treating the map as fluid, reinforcing Kansas, easing off Georgia and North Carolina, and watching states that were not supposed to be close.
Thune is not pretending every race is safe. He is saying the public surveys still miss part of the Republican electorate, and that organized turnout can decide a jump-ball map before Nov. 3.
Senate control rarely hinges on one speech in Nebraska. It hinges on whether the voters the polls keep undercounting actually cast ballots, and whether Republican money followed the right fights in time.
