A recent poll from Stack Data Strategy brings surprising forecasts for the hypothetical 2024 presidential election.
In a potential face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Trump emerges victorious in the electoral college according to the poll, but Biden easily trumps Ron DeSantis.
Conducted over a span of three weeks from October 13 to November 3, 2022, the poll surveyed 15,205 registered voters nationwide. The findings indicate that Trump could secure 292 electoral votes against Biden's 246. The popular vote also leans towards Trump, with 49% in his favor compared to Biden's 48%.
The survey suggests a significant shift in the political landscape of key states. Trump is predicted to win back Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These are states that Biden narrowly clinched in the 2020 elections.
Trump’s lead in these states is observed to be 1.4% in Arizona, 3.3% in Georgia, 2.3% in Pennsylvania, and a slim 1% in Wisconsin. This suggests a marginal but substantial edge over Biden in these crucial battlegrounds.
However, the tables turn into a hypothetical matchup between Biden and DeSantis. Biden is predicted to triumph with a decisive 359 electoral votes against DeSantis' 179.
Trump is not just leading against Biden. The former president also outperforms other potential Democratic candidates like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom in the hypothetical matchups, as per the poll.
Politico released these findings on November 13, 2023. It's important to note that Stack Data Strategy has a credible track record. They accurately predicted the House seats in the November 2022 midterm elections.
Joe Bedell, head of Stack Strategy in North America, shed light on the poll results:
"Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win...Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin."
This forecast starkly contrasts the 2020 election results, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Interestingly, Trump lost Michigan in 2016 but managed to secure it in 2020.
The Stack Data Strategy poll, as highlighted by Politico, underscores the firm's accuracy:
"Stack Data Strategy, working with the National Republican Congressional Committee, were one of the most accurate forecasters of the 2022 House of Representatives election, correctly predicting the number of Republican seats within one of the final total."
The political landscape in America appears to be more unpredictable than ever. As we approach the next presidential race, these poll results offer food for thought for both parties.
