Donald Trump is rebounding rather nicely from the hit he took from the debate and the DNC.
As a matter of fact, based on what I saw this weekend, Democrats better worry about a demographic they have had on lockdown forever.
Talking Points…
- Trump current polling
- Crowd goes crazy for Trump
- Analysis
Harris has been holding steady at around a 3% lead nationally against Trump, but a recent Trafalgar Group poll has given her campaign cause for concern. Harris trailed Trump by 3% in that poll. The question now is if the poll is an outlier or the beginning of a new trend. If Trump wins the popular vote, there is no way Harris can win the general election, so this is clearly reason for them to start panicking just a bit.
In terms of battleground states, Harris’ news does not get any better. The latest poll is the AtlasIntel poll, which now has Trump up by one point in Arizona, and one point in Georgia. In Nevada, Harris had a 3-point edge on Trump, but only a one-point lead in the latest poll from TIPP Insights.
As I see it, the key to this election is the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the AtlasIntel poll, Trump now leads Harris by four points in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Trump is up by three points, a result that is backed up in the latest Trafalgar poll, where Trump is holding a three-point lead. In Wisconsin, Trump is showing a two-point lead, but he is trailing in this state in two polls after the AtlasIntel poll, so I still believe he is trailing there.
The bottom line here is that Trump is trending in the right direction in at least two of these states. And I firmly believe that if Trump wins two of the three Blue Wall states listed, Harris has no path to victory. Keep in mind that New Jersey is now very much in play for Trump, a state that Democrats expect to win, but Trump and Harris are now in a virtual tie in the Garden State.
Democrats have feasted on younger voters in past elections, but Trump is really starting to make headway in that demographic. His son, Barron, suggested some podcasts to his father, and they appear to have introduced Trump to younger voters who are joining the MAGA universe.
To that point, Donald Trump attended the Alabama-Georgia game this weekend, and the kids went wild when they saw him. When a USA chant broke out, Trump hit up one of the concession stands and started throwing out snacks to everyone. Later, Trump was shown on the jumbotron, and the entire stadium went nuts…
Happening now in Tuscaloosa! President Trump shown on the jumbotron at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Alabama… pic.twitter.com/66glPPge9N
— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) September 29, 2024
I know the game was in the South, where Trump fairs much better, but these are college kids that Dems have feasted on in recent years. Yet, there is Trump, with an entire stadium giving him a standing ovation.
As far as polling goes, things are truly starting to settle down, and we are getting a much better picture of how this is all going to play out. As I have stated before, I think we will see a true pattern develop over the next two weeks, at which time I will go on the record with who I think wins this election, but Trump is clearly trending much better than Harris right now.
In terms of Trump winning over younger voters, this is a real problem for Harris because Democrats rely on younger voters as much as they do minority votes, and Harris is not doing well in either area right now. She is far below the average with black and Hispanic voters, so if she loses a chunk of younger voters to Trump, she is cooked.
For Trump, I would say keep your head down, continue to do these visits and hammer policy. Please avoid the insults and the stupid nicknames because the policy arguments are hitting home on all fronts. There is another big game in Texas in a few weeks when Georgia takes on the Longhorns, and Alabama will also be facing off against Tennessee during the same weekend. And let’s not forget the Red River Rivalry when Texas faces off against Oklahoma in two weeks. If I were Trump, I would try to make all those games to grab some headlines. When you compare Trump’s greeting to that of Walz’s at the Michigan-Minnesota game, it is pretty clear who the American people like more right now. Let’s just see if that translates to votes on election day.
