With Kamala Harris in the race, Trump suddenly abandoned the idea of stealing away blue states like New Jersey and New York.
Instead, Trump will refocus his campaign on key battleground states where he must defeat Harris in November.
Talking Points…
- Current polling in battleground states
- Trump refocusing campaign
- Analysis
With every passing day, it seems that Kamala Harris' lead nationally over Trump grows, which is shocking. The woman has no platform, and she has not done any interviews, yet people are voting for her simply because she is not Donald Trump. Any hope that Trump had of winning the popular vote is gone at this point, as are states like New Jersey and New York, which were both in play when Biden was in the race.
Trump has the red states in hand, so his concentration is now on the key battleground states he will need to win this election. Arizona is a coin flip right now, with polls showing both Trump and Harris ahead, so this state is clearly still in play for Trump. Trump is leading Harris in Georgia, but it is within the margin of error, a considerable change from when he was running against Biden.
Trump was beating Harris in Nevada in every poll until the last one, which now has Harris ahead by six points. This is a concern for Trump, but that last poll may have been an outlier, so time will tell. Trump has a sizable lead in Ohio, so I doubt Harris can make up a double-digit lead in under three months. Harris holds a small lead in Virginia so that state is still in play.
That brings us to the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Whoever can pull the majority of these three states will likely win the election. In Michigan, Harris has a 3.1% advantage right now over Trump, but in more recent polling, Trump is edging closer, so this state is clearly still in play. In Pennsylvania, Harris is up by 1.6%, but again, in the most recent polls, Trump is trending back up, so this is yet another key state that is up for grabs. Harris has taken a significant lead in Wisconsin, now up by 3.7% on average but up by 6% in the latest poll, so that is somewhat concerning.
Trump's strategy has changed considerably with a new candidate in the race. Trump had the key Blue Wall states with Biden, but now Kamala has them all in hand. To be clear, if Harris wins PA, MI, and WI, she wins this election, which is why Trump's strategy has changed.
The former president is going on a blitz tour to battleground states to swing momentum back in his direction. Trump returned to Pennsylvania and is headed to Michigan and Wisconsin on Thursday. Trump also plans to address manufacturing during his Michigan address, stating:
"For nearly four years, the Harris-Biden economic policies have put unnecessary stress and pressure on Michigan families."
If I were Trump, I would also be hammering the recent reports about layoffs and lagging sales for EVs, which are a big part of the Democrat agenda (we have no idea what Harris' agenda is because she still does not have it posted on her website).
For the remainder of this election, Trump will have to focus heavily on PA, MI, and WI, but he also needs to spend time in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Virginia if he is going to win. He has to find a way to expose Harris, but thus far, he and the RNC have failed to do that.
Trump and Harris have a debate scheduled in about two weeks, and Trump is going to have to hit her hard if she actually shows up for the debate. Her campaign just submitted some possible rule changes to benefit Harris, and I am not sure if Trump will go for them or not. Regardless, Trump is running out of time, and he has to regain his edge. To do that, he will have to be a road warrior for the next two months.
