With the GOP divided, more specifically, Haley and DeSantis supporters making it clear they will not vote for Trump, the former president needs to replace those votes.
Trump could be doing just that in a key minority demographic that Biden dominated in the 2020 election.
Talking Points…
- GOP divide
- Biden now trailing Trump in key Demographic
- Analysis
The divide is real in the GOP. Donald Trump and his campaign team went after DeSantis hard right out of the gate, and they continued to lob bombs at DeSantis even with him out of the race. Trump, who always complained about how dirty politics is, pulled some pretty nasty tricks out of his hat to take down DeSantis very early in the campaign.
In addition to the attacks by Trump, his X guy, Alex Bruesewitz, engaged DeSantis supporters on X, insulting them and telling them they were not needed for Trump to win the general election. As the early voting states approached, the attacks got nastier and nastier, and that was just against DeSantis supporters. Absurd and childish allegations were then made against DeSantis and his wife, Casey. Allegations of marriage infidelity, of Casey faking her cancer diagnosis, and, of course, the "pudding fingers" and shoelift stories they put out on social media against DeSantis.
These attacks took their toll, putting a wedge between DeSantis and Trump supporters that still exists. This has gone from poking the bear to actual hatred on both sides, so that does not seem to be a wound that will heal by November. Now, with Haley being the last one standing, her campaign and supporters are feeling the wrath of the Trump campaign, creating an even bigger break in the party.
If Trump does not have DeSantis and Haley supporters, he is going to have to make that ground up somewhere, and he appears to be making a dent in the minority voting demographics. The latest New York Times and Siena College survey had some very good news for Trump and crushing news for Joe Biden.
The poll has Trump with a five-point edge over Biden, 48-43, but the news gets much worse than that for Joe. Many of the voters polled actually voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but they have heard and seen enough. So much so, in fact, that 10% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are now saying they will vote for Trump in this election. If that holds on election day, it will basically flip the results of the 2020 election.
Democrats have also dominated minority demographics during elections, but that is starting to swing dramatically in favor of the GOP. The survey showed Trump leading Biden 46-40% among Hispanic voters. Working-class voters of color have also swung dramatically, with Biden winning the vote 72-22% in 2020, but that lead has now been reduced to 47-41% in favor of Biden.
And the bad news does not stop there for Biden. In terms of energy, he is almost getting lapped by Trump. The survey found that only 23% of Biden supporters were excited about him being the nominee, while 48% said they were excited about Trump being the nominee. This could be crushing for Biden if they have a low turnout on election day.
I have already stated that I expect this to be a low-turnout election, especially if a Trump case is decided and he is found guilty of a felony. I also believe we may have an election where there are voters who will skip over the presidential election and only vote in down-ballot elections, but I think that will be more on the conservative side, with DeSantis and Haley's supporters refusing to pull the handle for Trump, but also not willing to vote for Biden.
Just from checking the pulse on social media, DeSantis and Haley supporters realize the importance of maintaining control of at least one chamber of Congress, so I don't expect them to skip voting altogether. This is just something to look at if there are cries of election fraud due to a lack of presidential votes compared to the down-ballot voting.
While Trump's headway into the Hispanic demographic is notable and will surely help him make up some of the most conservative votes, Trump will need more, and he can do that by naming Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.) as his VP. While the polling is limited on this, the numbers I have seen offer Trump a significant boost among black voters if he has a black VP on the ticket, and the most qualified, regardless of race and gender, in my opinion, is Senator Scott. If Trump can hold the Hispanic numbers and draw in more black voters with Scott as his VP, he just might be able to cover the votes he will lose among Haley and DeSantis supporters.
