Trump Loses Ground, Haley Gets Big Boost in Latest Election Polling

By Jerry McConway, updated on January 12, 2024

The polling leading up to the 2024 GOP primary has been turned on its ear again.

Nikki Haley, who has made every mistake possible down the stretch, has had yet another massive surge, taking a huge chunk out of Trump’s New Hampshire lead.

Talking Points…
- Iowa polling
- New Hampshire polling
- Analysis

Iowa Primary polling

Somehow, after it was revealed that Nikki Haley had idolized and been inspired by Hillary Clinton, Iowa voters have now put her past Governor Ron DeSantis, who has visited every county. Once again, she had defied the odds by surging past DeSantis after yet another gaffe.

Donald Trump is still leading the pack at 52.3%, with Nikki Haley in second at 17.1%, and Ron DeSantis now pushed back to third at 15.7%. Vivek Ramaswamy is now an afterthought, polling at only 6.3%.

New Hampshire Polling

This is where we have seen the most movement since former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie left the race, with Nikki Haley getting a massive surge in the state to almost cut Trump’s lead down to single digits.

Currently, Trump is leading the way at 41.4%, with Haley now in a close second at 29.6%, and DeSantis pushed back to a distant third at 6.1%. Vivek Ramaswamy brings up the rear, polling at only 4.9%.

Analysis

First and foremost, this is just devastating for the DeSantis campaign, which has spent a ton of money and just as much time in Iowa to try to take the state. The fact that DeSantis has now slipped back to third place is baffling, as there seems to still be good energy around his campaign heading into Iowa. If this polling is accurate, I don’t see how DeSantis can continue on if he finishes in third place in Iowa.

For Nikki Haley, her campaign has to be ecstatic with the gains, especially considering the gaffes she has made over the last month. It does not seem to matter what she says or does, as she has become the clear alternative to Trump in these early-voting states.

And let’s not forget, if DeSantis does drop out before South Carolina, that would enable Haley to go head-to-head with Trump in her home state. While Trump still has a huge lead in South Carolina, currently leading Haley 52.9% to 24.0%, that number will change dramatically if DeSantis is out of the race (currently holding 12.7%).

If that scenario plays out, all of a sudden, Trump is in a race, just as we predicted, only with a different candidate being the last one standing in Nikki Haley (I had predicted it would be Ron DeSantis).

Haley clearly has the establishment and big-money donors behind her, so if Ramaswamy and DeSantis are out before Super Tuesday, this is no longer a walkover event for Trump. Haley will unite the never-Trump crowd, so expect her numbers to blow up once DeSantis is out of the race.

It is shocking, truly shocking, that DeSantis’ campaign is the one that fell apart and Haley is the candidate the anti-Trump crowd decided to rally behind. The only thing I can figure at this point is that perhaps they thought DeSantis was too extreme and too close to Trump in agenda to get behind, so they went with Haley… nothing else makes sense.

About Jerry McConway

Jerry McConway is an independent political author and investigator who lives in Dallas, Texas. He has spent years building a strong following of readers who know that he will write what he believes is true, even if it means criticizing politicians his followers support. His readers have come to expect his integrity.

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