Trump Leads in Crucial Swing States Ahead of Biden

 May 14, 2024

Former President Donald Trump is leading in five out of six crucial swing states, according to the latest New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer polls.

The data indicates significant gains for Trump among Hispanic, Black, and young voters, posing a challenge for President Joe Biden, Breitbart News reported.

The swing states where Trump leads include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with his advantage extending outside the margin of error in four states. In Arizona, Trump has a notable lead of 49%-42% among registered voters and 49%-43% among likely voters. Similarly, in Georgia, he leads with 49%-39% among registered voters and 50%-41% among likely voters.

In Michigan, the race is tighter, with Trump holding 49%-42% among registered voters, but Biden is slightly ahead among likely voters at 47%-46%. Nevada strongly prefers Trump, who leads 50%-38% among registered voters and 51%-38% among likely voters. Pennsylvania mirrors this trend, with Trump at 47%-44% among registered voters and 48%-45% among likely voters.

Polling Data Reveals Voter Concerns

Wisconsin presents a mixed picture, with Biden leading 47%-45% among registered voters, while Trump is edging ahead among likely voters at 47%-46%. The inclusion of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the polls reveals that he secured an average of 10% support across the six states, which impacted both Trump and Biden.

These polling results have largely remained unchanged since the last swing state polling conducted in November. The data reflects ongoing voter concerns over issues such as the cost of living, immigration, and the war in Gaza, all of which have negatively impacted President Biden’s approval ratings.

Voter perceptions of the economy remain grim, with more than half describing it as "poor," though this is a slight improvement from November. Despite these challenges, the data shows that Trump and Biden are tied among voters aged 18 to 29 and Hispanic voters. Trump is also making unprecedented inroads with Black voters, further complicating the race for Biden.

Detailed Polling Insights Across States

The poll, conducted from April 28 to May 9, sampled 4,097 registered voters across the six states. The margin of error ranges from 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to 4.6 points in Georgia, with a combined margin of error of 1.8 points. Nate Cohn commented on the findings, noting the electorate's persistent discontent.

The Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling on abortion as a state issue has also influenced voter sentiment, with about 20 percent of voters attributing more blame to Biden than to Trump. This ruling remains a contentious issue among the electorate.

In a tweet, the Trump War Room highlighted the significance of these polling results, describing the situation as an "absolute disaster" for Biden. This sentiment underscores Biden's challenges as he seeks to retain support in these critical swing states.

Trump Gains Momentum Amid Economic Concerns

Nate Cohn remarked: "The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump, or quelled the electorate’s discontent."

This sentiment captures the prevailing mood among voters, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration’s handling of key issues. As Trump continues to gain traction, Biden’s campaign faces the daunting task of addressing these concerns to turn the tide in his favor.


The latest polling data shows that former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum in key swing states against President Joe Biden, making notable advances among Hispanic, Black, and young voters. Biden's approval ratings suffer due to ongoing voter concerns about the economy, immigration, and international conflicts. The presence of third-party candidates in the race adds another layer of challenge for both campaigns in a closely watched and contentious election cycle.

About Robert Cunningham

With years of experience at the forefront of political commentary, Robert Cunningham brings a blend of sharp wit and deep insight to his analysis of American principles at the Capitalism Institute.

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