A recent Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll suggests former President Donald Trump could secure a victory in the Electoral College without winning North Carolina if the presidential election were held today.
The survey, which pitted Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, shows the former president leading in several crucial swing states.
According to Breitbart News, the poll conducted between September 15 and September 18, 2024, sampled between 868 and 1,000 likely voters in seven key battleground states. The results indicate that Trump holds an advantage over Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris maintains a slight lead in Michigan and North Carolina.
The poll results reveal a tight race in most of the surveyed states, with Trump's lead falling within the credibility interval in several instances. In Arizona, Trump holds a narrow 49% to 48% advantage over Harris, with 2% opting for another candidate and 1% remaining undecided. Georgia shows a slightly wider margin, with Trump at 50% and Harris at 47%.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also lean towards Trump, albeit by slim margins. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads with 48% to Harris's 47%, while Wisconsin shows a similar 49% to 48% split in Trump's favor. These razor-thin margins underscore the highly competitive nature of the potential 2024 presidential race.
Interestingly, the poll indicates that Harris holds a slight edge in Michigan and North Carolina, two states that have been battlegrounds in recent elections. In Michigan, Harris leads with 49% to Trump's 47%, while North Carolina shows Harris ahead by a single percentage point at 49% to 48%.
When applying these poll results to the Electoral College map, the survey suggests a potential path to victory for Trump even without winning North Carolina. The analysis begins with Trump starting at 219 electoral votes from traditionally Republican-leaning states, before factoring in the seven swing states covered in the poll.
Arizona contributes 11 electoral votes, Georgia 16, Pennsylvania 19, and Wisconsin 10. If Trump were to secure these states as indicated by the poll, he would reach 275 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 threshold required to win the presidency. This scenario demonstrates that Trump could potentially lose both Michigan and North Carolina and still emerge victorious.
The poll also shows a dead heat in Nevada, with both candidates tied at 48%. Before rounding, Trump holds a slight 0.7 percentage point lead in the state. If Nevada were to fall into Trump's column, it would further solidify his position, bringing his total to 281 electoral votes.
The poll's findings regarding North Carolina are particularly noteworthy given the state's recent voting history. Trump won North Carolina in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, defeating Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percentage points in 2016 and Joe Biden by 1.3 percentage points in 2020. The current poll showing Harris with a slight lead in the state could indicate a potential shift in voter preferences or simply reflect the poll's margin of error.
It's important to note that this poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of a reported second assassination attempt on Trump, which occurred on September 15. The impact of this event on voter sentiment, if any, is unclear and would require further analysis to determine.
The credibility intervals for the poll range from ±3% to ±3.3%, depending on the state. This means that the actual levels of support for each candidate could vary slightly from the reported percentages, potentially affecting the overall narrative of the race in these crucial swing states.
The Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll provides a snapshot of the potential 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in key swing states. The results suggest a path to victory for Trump in the Electoral College, even without winning North Carolina. The poll shows Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris holds slight advantages in Michigan and North Carolina. With most results falling within the poll's credibility interval, the race remains highly competitive, underscoring the importance of these battleground states in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.
