The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll just came out, and I am literally shocked at the results.
They were pretty eye-opening with all the problems that the GOP had in the 2020 and 2022 elections.
So, as I stated above, this poll result threw me for a loop…
Georgia 2024: Trump holds 42-point lead for Republican Nomination
Trump 57% (+7)
DeSantis 15% (-15)
Pence 4% (+2)
Ramaswamy 3%
Scott 3% (+2)
Haley 3% (-1)
Christie 2% (+2)
Suarez 1%[Change vs April]@ajc / @UGA_SPIA | 807 LV | 8/16-23https://t.co/3MUfPjVS4B pic.twitter.com/7pdGu5FRn6
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023
Republicans got smoked in Georgia over the last two elections, so seeing Trump with such a commanding lead was a bit of a surprise.
If I had not seen this poll, I would have thought that DeSantis would be ahead, then Trump, then the rest of the field. But, clearly, Republican voters in Georgia are still behind Trump for the election, boasting a massive 57-15 lead over DeSantis, with nobody else really a factor.
The fact that Trump is over 50 percent is not good news for DeSantis, even if this goes heads up.
I believe that Georgia is a state that DeSantis would have to carry to have any chance of beating Trump, so this poll is great news for Trump, and utterly devastating for DeSantis.
According to the latest polls on FiveThirtyEight, that answer is yes.
Citizens to Save Our Republic (super PAC), a Democrat group, funding a poll conducted by the Prime Group that wrapped up on June 28, and Trump held a four-point edge over Biden.
That is, by far, the best polling that Trump has seen in recent months.
Again, this is a staggering result when considering how purple and blue Georgia has been over the last two election cycles.
In case you were curious, DeSantis is also polling well, ahead of Biden by three points in a June Public Opinion Strategies poll.
I have to admit, I am not overly confident of this polling, but right now, Trump can do this.
March 5, for all intents and purposes, is the day that this election is going to be decided.
If DeSantis is going to make a stand, it will be on Super Tuesday, when 15 states and American Samoa head to the polls.
Among the most critical states for DeSantis… Alabama, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. In my estimation, DeSantis will need to win four out of those five to have any shot at staying in the race.
Currently, DeSantis is only ahead of Trump in Alabama, but that poll is several months old, so that may have changed.
My guess here is that by the end of Super Tuesday, we will have only one candidate left in this race who has a real path to the nomination.
This is where things really start to get sticky. If Trump wins the nomination, two of the cases (both by Special Counsel Jack Smith) could derail him.
If Trump is found guilty of insurrection, and that is a big task to prove, he would be disqualified, which would turn the race on end.
Stanford Law professor Michael McConnell believes that will be tough to do, stating, “The amendment should be interpreted as … an enormous last resort and maybe January 6 rose to that level.
“It certainly was a much more serious civil disturbance than we usually see. But whether it’s actually an insurrection. I think it’s a bit of a stretch.”
As far as what happens, well, the GOP would be without a nominee, but since this has never happened, I don’t think anyone is quite sure how this will proceed if the nomination is secured and Trump is disqualified.
My guess is that the default candidate would fall to whoever was in second place, which would likely be DeSantis, but that also presents a challenge.
Trump’s team has been adamant that they would not support DeSantis if he wins the nomination, so there is that.
Honestly, this is the most confusing and complex presidential election I have seen in my entire adult life.
For someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes politics and usually has an opinion on just about everything, I am still very much up in the air as to how this plays out once these trials start for Trump.
