We all but begged Trump to stay off Truth Social during this trial, knowing that Judge Merchan would give Trump a very short leash in terms of the gag order that had been previously issued.
Merchan proved us right this week, fining Trump $9,000 for gag order violations and threatening Trump with jail time if the violations continued, which drew the expected venom from Trump.
Talking Points…
- Trump fined for gag order violations
- Trump responds to fines
- Analysis
Merchan Announces Fine for Trump Gag Order Violations
We all knew this was coming… Donald Trump continued to post on Truth Social as well as hammer Judge Merchan and Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg in his post-trial press conferences, even after the gag order had been issued. Bragg had asked the judge to fine Trump regarding the gag order, but Merchan had reserved his ruling at the time.
That changed on Tuesday when Judge Merchan announced that he was fining Donald Trump $9,000 for several gag order violations. Merchan also made it very clear to Trump that jail time was a possibility for the former president if the violations continued. Merchan stated:
"In some cases that might be a $2,500 fine, in other cases it might be a fine of $150,000. Because this Court is not cloaked with such discretion, it must therefore consider whether, in some instances, jail may be a necessary punishment.”
Trump Responds to Gag Order
As expected, Trump went nuclear as soon as the fines were issued. Trump went right to Truth Social to complain about the order and the fines, as well as his constitutional right to free speech being taken away from him. Trump posted:
"This Judge has taken away my Constitutional Right to FREE SPEECH. I am the only Presidential Candidate in History to be GAGGED.
"This whole ‘Trial’ is RIGGED, and by taking away my FREEDOM OF SPEECH, THIS HIGHLY CONFLICTED JUDGE IS RIGGING THE PRESIDENTIAL OF 2024 ELECTION. ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!"
Trump also called for Merchan to recuse himself due to a conflict of interest. He stated:
"This is a hoax. This is a judge who is conflicted – badly, badly, badly conflicted. I've never seen a judge so conflicted and giving us virtually no rulings.
"I'm going to sit in the freezing cold icebox for eight hours, nine hours or so. They took me off the campaign trail. But the good news is my poll numbers are the highest it's ever been. So, at least we're getting the word out. And everybody knows this trial is a scam. It's a scam. The judge should be recused; that he should recuse himself today, he should recuse himself today. And maybe he will.”
Analysis
Trump is not going to win this battle with the judge, which is why I recommended that he keep his head down and wait for the verdict. If he loses the case, he has a very strong case for an appeal. I just don’t see how Bragg’s charges will hold up under the scrutiny of any appeals court.
I would also note that Trump has not been spending his off days during the week on the campaign trail. For instance, last Wednesday, Trump was on the golf course rather than on the campaign trail. Now, he can do whatever he wants, but when you are complaining about being taken off the campaign trail, and you are at home playing golf on the day off the court, it is not a good look and one that the mainstream media is going to pounce on.
The bad news for Trump is that Merchan said he violated the gag order nine times, and we are only two weeks into the trial. This trial is expected to last between six and eight weeks, so if Trump does not zip it and stop posting on Truth Social, he may get his wish regarding being sent to jail. One more quick note... when you are trying to create the image of a tough guy, you may want to back off constantly complaining about how cold the courtroom is because his critics are already pouncing on that narrative to make him look weak, old, and tired.
