While North Carolina has always been considered a battleground state, it has not gone Democrat since Barack Obama ran for office.
Trump has been trailing in this state, not being helped by the scandal facing the GOP gubernatorial candidate, but Trump appears to have overcome this challenge.
Talking Points…
- Trump edges ahead in North Carolina
- Battleground state polls
- Analysis
Kamala Harris has been leading Trump in North Carolina ever since she was gifted the nomination. While North Carolina is considered a battleground state, this is a state the GOP usually wins in a general election. For the most part, Harris held at least a 3% lead over Trump and held that number up until the middle of September.
We started to see a crack as the Harris Honeymoon started to end, and Trump began to chip away at her lead. By the third week of September, Trump had begun to pull even with Harris, but now he had pulled ahead.
Trump’s first lead in the state was in an East Carolina University survey where Trump pulled ahead by two points. Harris and Trump went back and forth for several surveys, then he started to pull ahead. The Quinnipiac Survey showed Trump up by two points, and now a Washington Post poll has Trump ahead by three points. This is a massive deal for Trump because it means he would only need one Blue Wall state in order to block Harris from getting to 270 in the Electoral College.
Arizona continues to be a stalemate between these two as they trade leads. Trump does not necessarily need Arizona, but it would be a huge boost to his campaign if he could land it. Georgia has pretty much been the same story, but one poll had Trump up by five points (Quinnipiac). This state has been owned by the GOP since 1996 and has only had Democrats take the state in two elections since 1984. When Trump lost the state in 2020, it was a complete and utter shock, but it was only by 0.2%, and the belief is that Georgia learned its lesson and will vote for Trump in 2024. If Trump takes both of these states, there is only one path for Harris to get to 270.
Michigan looked like it was moving to Trump, but the state has had a bit of a turn over the last two polls. In a previous AtlasIntel poll, Trump was ahead by four points, but that lead has gone away in the most recent polls, with the RMG Research poll now showing Trump down by 3%. Harris has lost a big lead in Pennsylvania, with three of the last four polls showing Trump in the lead and the fourth poll showing them tied. Right now, it looks like PA is leaning to Trump, and that is huge.
It is a fair guess that Harris and Trump are likely to split those two states, leaving Wisconsin as the big prize. Harris has been polling very well in Wisconsin, but Trump did make up a lot of ground in the last poll, the Trafalgar Group survey, which had Trump ahead by one point. Right now, I am giving this state a lean toward Trump, but it is clearly still in play.
There is a lot of talk about some states coming into play for both of these candidates, such as Harris taking Florida or Texas and Trump being in the running in states like New York and Minnesota. I am telling you right now that Trump will get Florida and Texas, and Harris will get New York and Minnesota.
This race is far from set, as every battleground state is still in play. Nevada is off the books for Trump, IMO, so I would concentrate on Arizona and Georgia. In terms of Blue Wall states, Donald Trump clearly has an opportunity in Pennsylvania and Michigan, so that is where I would spend my time. I would not write off Wisconsin just yet, but if Harris continues to hold a 3-point lead in the state going into the final two weeks, I would spend my money elsewhere.
The bottom line is that anyone telling you that Trump is going to roll with an easy win is lying. I am not saying that election day will not wind up being an electoral route one way or another, as that could easily happen with how close all of these states are right now. Trump has been putting in the work, putting his boots on the ground in all of these states, sometimes multiple states on the same day, and that needs to continue to happen.
We are a month away from election day, and there is still a lot of work to do, but I do like the trends we are seeing right now. Trump needs to continue to hammer policy and Harris’ failed record, and he can pull this out. But again, the work is far from over, and this race is about as close as it gets.
