A surprising shift in voter sentiment has emerged in the 2024 presidential race.
According to the latest national NBC News poll, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are now in a statistical tie. The survey, conducted three weeks before Election Day, reveals a stark contrast to previous polls that showed Harris with a lead.
The poll results indicate that 48% of registered voters support Harris, while an identical 48% back Trump. This deadlock represents a significant change from September's NBC News poll, which had Harris leading by 5 points.
Trump's resurgence in the polls can be attributed to several factors. Republicans who had previously hesitated are now rallying behind their party's nominee. Additionally, voters' positive assessment of Trump's presidency has played a role in bolstering his numbers.
Conversely, Harris has experienced a decline in popularity since September. Her net favorability rating has dropped from +3 to -6, with the most significant erosion coming from independents and young voters. The poll also highlights a massive gender gap between the two candidates. Harris leads among women by 14 points (55%-41%), while Trump holds a 16-point advantage among men (56%-40%).
Interestingly, voters view Trump's past presidency more favorably than Biden's current term. Forty-four percent of voters believe Trump's policies helped them and their families, compared to only 25% who say the same about Biden's policies.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff, stated:
As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped. The race is a dead heat.
The poll also reveals that abortion is the top motivating issue for voters, followed closely by immigration/border security and protecting democracy or constitutional rights.
Both Harris and Trump face significant challenges as they head into the final stretch of the campaign. For Harris, the key question is whether she can distinguish herself from Biden and convince voters that she represents positive change.
McInturff commented on Harris's predicament: "She is asking for another term from the incumbent party." Trump, on the other hand, must address concerns about his first term and convince voters that his leadership style has evolved.
Third-party candidates give Trump a slight 1-point lead, indicating their potential impact in a close race. Varying turnout scenarios show Trump up by 2 points in a Republican-favored setting, while Harris leads by 3 points in a Democrat-favored scenario.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a "great deal of difference" in their lives, the highest response to this question in the NBC News poll since 1992. Despite this high level of engagement, there is still a significant degree of uncertainty. Ten percent of voters say they might change their minds, and a small portion of undecided voters remain on the fence.
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent memory. With both candidates deadlocked and facing unique challenges, the outcome may well hinge on voter turnout and the ability of each campaign to address its weaknesses in the final weeks before Election Day.
