From the outset of Trump's campaign, many assumed his trials and possible jail time would hurt Trump in polling and drive voters away from him.
Yet, the complete opposite has occurred, and according to Trump, now that his first federal indictment is in the courtroom, it is driving even more support to him.
Talking Points…
- Trump trial begins
- Trump gaining support
- Analysis
This week, Donald Trump's hush-money case in New York began. The trial has started with jury selection and several motions by both sides. Trump was hoping to be able to attend his Supreme Court hearing later this month, but the judge has already declined to allow Trump to be absent that day. Trump was also looking to take off the day of Barron Trump's graduation from high school, but the judge was non-committal and said he would have to see how the trial was going before deciding on that.
The prosecutors wanted to hit Trump with violating the gag order, which Trump called "unconstitutional." Trump also posted on Truth Social how unfair these rulings by the judge were and the usual claim of election interference. Trump loves to play the victim card in situations such as this, mainly because it works. His supporters eat this up and open their wallets to make donations to his campaign, so I don't expect him to stop pushing that narrative anytime soon.
During the second day of the trial, Judge Merchan tore into Trump for muttering under his breath during jury selection, claiming that Trump was trying to intimidate the witness. He made it quite clear to Trump that his behavior was unacceptable and would not be tolerated, which led to Trump making another statement to the media regarding how unfair this trial had been from the very start.
After court on Tuesday, Donald Trump decided to visit a local bodega in New York for a bit of campaigning. It was not just any bodega that Trump visited, but the one where Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg tried to charge a worker at the bodega after he killed a man who was attacking him behind the counter.
As Trump arrived at the bodega, the crowd outside the store went wild, chanting, "Trump, Trump, Trump," "Four more years," and "We love Trump." Then the crowd erupted into an impromptu singing of the National Anthem, and Trump was eating it all up.
Trump has been complaining that he will not be able to campaign during the trial unless he spends his early and late evenings flying across the country. So, Trump plans to campaign locally, at least part of the time, to draw more support to his campaign. Traditionally, New York has voted blue, but Trump hopes to change that in this election. He stated:
"It makes me campaign locally, and that's okay. We're doing better now than we've ever done, so I think it's having a reverse effect.
"We're going to come in – Number one, you have to stop crime and we're going to let the police do their job. They have to be given back their authority. They have to be able to do their job. And we're going to come into New York. We're making a big play for New York, other cities, too. But this city, I love this city."
Trump also took a swing at Biden on immigration, saying they are "taking over everything. The former president added:
"They've destroyed so many people. The African-American community now is not getting jobs. Migrants are taking their jobs that are here illegally. Hispanics are not getting jobs. Migrants are taking the jobs.
"If you look at the unemployment, the unemployment is good for migrants. Now, it went up 10%. All migrants. And they're in our country now. They're coming from prisons. I don't know where you know, they come from mental institutions. They come from prisons. They come from places you don't want to know about."
While I do not think that Trump will win in New York, he can hurt Biden by campaigning locally in terms of the popular vote. This will also get Trump more media, as the entire press pool is in New York covering this trial, so any campaign stop he makes will be covered far more heavily than if he had flown out of New York to campaign elsewhere. It is also an excuse not to spend money on campaigning right now. While Trump is doing better in terms of cash on hand, his campaign has been crippled by his legal fees, so this will allow Trump to raise more money while still getting significant coverage from the press.
