Top JPMorgan Strategist Predicts Biden Will Drop Out

 January 9, 2024

JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest delivers a surprising forecast in a year brimming with political speculation.

A JPMorgan strategist has predicted President Joe Biden may exit the upcoming presidential race.

In the comprehensive "Eye on the Market: Outlook 2024" report, Cembalest, a renowned strategist at JPMorgan, has shared a list of ten potential surprises for the current year. Among these, the prediction that President Joe Biden might withdraw from the presidential race due to health concerns stands out. This forecast suggests a timeframe between Super Tuesday on March 5th and the November general election on November 5th.

The Unpredictability of Political Events

The political arena is no stranger to unforeseen outcomes, as the report reminds us with a nod to the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in 2016. Cembalest's predictions challenge the industry's conventional thinking, which is often driven by consensus. He argues for considering outlier scenarios that could have significant impacts.

Cembalest’s report also touches on President Biden's current approval ratings, which he deems low, and describes his job performance as underwhelming. The strategist’s rationale integrates various criticisms surrounding the Biden administration. These criticisms focus on its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic issues, border crises, and foreign policy.

Moreover, the report mentions increasing doubts about President Biden's mental capacity. This concern has been echoed by political commentators and even by members of Biden's own Democratic Party. The speculation about Biden's potential withdrawal has intensified the concerns regarding his re-election campaign.

Democratic Dilemmas and a Missing Plan B

The Democratic Party is facing broader concerns about the upcoming presidential election, with no clear successor to Biden if he withdraws. Cembalest's report alludes to the possibility of the Democratic National Committee having to name a replacement candidate. However, it also highlights the uncertainty and lack of a backup plan, intensifying the sense of urgency within the party.

The suggestion that Vice President Kamala Harris may not be the most appealing option if a replacement is needed has added to the party's worries. It seems that the Democratic Party is at a crossroads, with the potential for significant shifts in the political landscape. As one senior Democrat told Reuters, "There is no Plan B," indicating the gravity of the situation.

Speculation continues to mount as political commentators consider the likely outcomes and ramifications of such a significant change in the presidential race. With the Democratic Party seemingly caught in a state of limbo, the question on everyone's mind is what the future holds if Biden drops out.


In a report, Michael Cembalest, a JPMorgan strategist, suggests that President Joe Biden might withdraw from the presidential race between Super Tuesday and the November election for health reasons. This prediction is part of a broader list of potential surprises for 2024, challenging the consensus-driven thinking in the industry. The report is critical of Biden's presidency, highlighting perceived failures in several key areas and raising concerns about his mental capacity.

The Democratic Party faces a dilemma, lacking a clear Plan B in case of Biden's withdrawal. Vice President Kamala Harris is considered by some to be a less appealing replacement. Political commentators and members of Biden’s party have voiced their concerns, with NBC News describing Biden's campaign as a "five-alarm fire."

As the nation waits and watches, the only certainty is the uncertainty of what will come next. The story of whether President Biden will continue his re-election campaign is one to follow closely, with implications that could reshape the American political landscape.

About Robert Cunningham

With years of experience at the forefront of political commentary, Robert Cunningham brings a blend of sharp wit and deep insight to his analysis of American principles at the Capitalism Institute.

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