Republican Speaker Mike Johnson dropped a stark warning on Monday, forecasting that the ongoing federal government shutdown could stretch into the longest in U.S. history.
As reported by AP News, Johnson declared he "won’t negotiate" with Democrats until they back off their demands to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, leaving the government shuttered on its 13th day. The closure has already disrupted routine operations, closed cultural landmarks like Smithsonian museums, and snarled airport traffic, piling uncertainty onto a fragile economy.
Johnson, speaking from Louisiana roots, admitted he’s in the dark about the mass layoffs of federal workers under the Trump administration, a move critics see as a calculated slash at government size. Vice President JD Vance has hinted at "painful" cuts ahead, while unions fight back with lawsuits, painting a grim picture for thousands now out of work.
At the heart of this deadlock lies the Affordable Care Act, with subsidies for millions set to expire by year’s end, threatening to double monthly insurance costs as estimated by the Kaiser Family Foundation. Democrats insist on renewal, while Republicans, led by Johnson, argue the issue can wait until the government reopens.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, speaking on MSNBC, slammed Republicans for essentially abandoning the chamber for a fourth week, stating they’re "nowhere to be found." Such absence from the table only hardens the gridlock, leaving little room for compromise as the public bears the cost.
The House remains out of session, with Johnson refusing to call lawmakers back, while the Senate, returning Tuesday after a holiday closure, faces a wall of failed votes. Neither side budges, and the shutdown rolls on with no clear end in sight.
November 1 marks a looming pressure point, as open enrollment for the health program begins and skyrocketing premiums could hit Americans hard if subsidies lapse by December 31. Government workers, including House aides, also face missed paychecks by month’s end, adding personal hardship to policy disputes.
Johnson acknowledged past Republican failures on this front, confessing he still has "PTSD" from the botched 2017 attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under Trump’s first term. His candor reveals a party wary of revisiting old battles, yet unwilling to yield ground now.
Reflecting on full repeal, Johnson added, "Many of us are skeptical about that now because the roots are so deep." Such skepticism suggests a tactical retreat, but his insistence that Democrats must reopen government first keeps the standoff firmly in place.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration wields broad authority during the shutdown, firing workers and tapping alternative funds to pay military personnel and Coast Guard members this week, easing one key pressure point. The Pentagon accessed $8 billion in unused research funds to cover troops, though departments like Education suffer, with special education and after-school programs taking hits.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office noted that mandatory funding from the 2025 reconciliation act could sustain certain agency activities, including at Defense, Treasury, and Homeland Security. This flexibility lets the administration prioritize, but it also fuels complaints from fellow Republicans and legal challenges from unions over worker dismissals.
Johnson publicly thanked President Trump for securing military pay, a move that buys time but sidesteps broader resolution. Selective funding may keep some sectors afloat, yet it leaves countless others stranded in bureaucratic limbo.
The longest shutdown on record, lasting 35 days in 2019 over Trump’s border wall demands, looms as a benchmark Johnson fears surpassing. With 24 million now enrolled in Obamacare, a record high, the stakes of this health care fight cut deeper than ever.
Historical echoes resonate, from the 16-day shutdown in 2013 under Obama over ACA repeal efforts to the failed 2017 push derailed by Senator John McCain’s iconic thumbs-down vote. Today’s battle, though, feels less about grand repeal and more about who blinks first in a test of political will.
As the shutdown grinds on, Johnson’s prediction of a historic duration isn’t just a warning; it’s a challenge to a system already strained by partisan divides. Americans, caught between policy wars and shuttered services, can only watch as Congress and the White House play a high-stakes game with no winner in sight.
