Vice President Kamala Harris is closing the polling gap with former President Donald Trump in Iowa as the election approaches.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent appears to be playing a pivotal role in this tight race, with his candidacy seemingly pulling votes away from Trump, New York Post reported.
In the latest poll conducted by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, which surveyed 656 likely voters in the state, Harris garnered 43% support compared to Trump’s 47%. This reflects a significantly narrowed gap from a previous June poll where Trump led President Joe Biden by 18 points.
A key factor in this shift appears to be voter enthusiasm, which is ramping up on the Democratic side. About 80% of Harris supporters indicated a high level of enthusiasm ahead of the upcoming vote, surpassing the 74% of Trump supporters who expressed the same sentiment.
Additionally, decision solidity is slightly higher among Democrats, with 89% of Harris's backers confirming their choice, compared to 84% of those favoring Trump. This paints a picture of a Democratic base that is increasingly committed as election day nears.
Diving deeper into demographic preferences, stark differences arise: Trump commands a significant 27-point lead among male voters, while Harris has a 17-point advantage with female voters and performs particularly well with suburban women, securing 69% of their votes against Trump’s 27%.
Despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s minor 6% share in the poll, his presence is highly notable. Kennedy has made headlines by maintaining his run in Iowa, despite retracting his candidacy in several other states. Talking with NewsNation, Kennedy expressed, “We’ve tried to get out of all the swing states.”
RFK Jr.'s Persisting Influence in the Iowa Race
While Kennedy’s strategy has been to defer to Democrats in competitive states, his continued campaign in Iowa uniquely affected the traditional two-party dynamic.
Moreover, this development comes as political analysts speculate on the true impact of third-party candidates in what traditionally shapes up as a head-to-head race.
Iowa’s political landscape is notably challenging for Democrats, given the state’s Republican registration advantage. However, Harris is polling notably stronger than her personal favorability ratings, which stand at 43% approval versus 51% disapproval, suggesting her campaign messages might be resonating more than personal perceptions.
The current scenario also highlights the minimal effect that primary contenders within the Republican Party have on Trump's stronghold.
Despite previous endorsements for Ron DeSantis by key figures like Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, Trump maintains a commanding 94% loyalty among Republicans and retains majority support from independents.
Even as Trump criticized Reynolds for her supposed "disloyalty" during the primaries, his grip on the state’s conservative base appears unshaken. Both candidates are now focusing on consolidating their respective strengths amid shifting voter sentiments as the election approaches.
