Prediction markets are signaling a potential socialist sweep in the New York City mayoral race. Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic primary victor, is sitting pretty with a 72% chance of clinching the November 2025 election, according to Kalshi, a platform where folks wager on real-world outcomes. It’s a number that might make even the most optimistic conservative wince.
According to the New York Post, the story boils down to Mamdani holding a commanding lead over competitors like Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa, with millions already bet on the outcome through Kalshi’s market.
Let’s rewind to the primaries, where Mamdani secured the Democratic nomination, setting the stage for this high-stakes race. His odds of winning peaked at a staggering 94.8% back in April 2025, per Kalshi’s data. That’s the kind of lead that could make any progressive agenda enthusiast start drafting city-wide mandates overnight.
Fast forward to now, and Mamdani’s edge has slipped a bit, down to 72%—still a hefty advantage. One has to wonder if this dip reflects voter fatigue with left-leaning policies or just a natural ebb in speculative betting. Either way, it’s not enough to loosen his grip on the race.
Kalshi, a CFTC-licensed derivative market available across all 50 states, has seen a whopping $12,917,756 wagered on this NYC mayoral contest as of a recent Thursday morning. That’s a lot of cash riding on whether Mamdani’s vision for the city will come to pass. It’s almost as if bettors are treating this election like a high-stakes poker game.
For those unfamiliar, Kalshi lets users place bets on real-life events, including political races like this one, with payouts expected around the election date of November 4, 2025. A $10 bet on Mamdani would net a modest $14 if he wins, reflecting his favored status. But the same $10 on underdog Andrew Cuomo could yield a tidy $67—talk about a long shot worth pondering.
Speaking of Cuomo, the independent candidate and primary loser to Mamdani has clawed his way up to a 15% chance of victory, a big jump from under 2% in May 2025. It’s a flicker of hope for those wary of a socialist-leaning administration, but still a steep hill to climb. One can’t help but admire the grit, even if the odds remain daunting.
Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, meanwhile, holds steady at a 9% chance of retaining his seat in the November 2025 election. That’s a sobering figure for anyone hoping the current leadership might weather the storm. It seems the market isn’t betting on continuity this time around.
Then there’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, languishing at a mere 3% chance of winning. Rumors swirled that he might bow out, potentially clearing a path for Cuomo or Adams to snag the Republican bid, but as the election nears, Sliwa remains in the fight. It’s a stubborn stand, though the numbers suggest it’s more symbolic than strategic.
With the election set for November 4, 2025, the stakes couldn’t be higher for New Yorkers watching this unfold. The sheer volume of money—over $12 million—poured into Kalshi’s market shows just how much interest, and perhaps anxiety, surrounds the outcome. It’s not just a race; it’s a referendum on the city’s direction.
For conservatives, Mamdani’s lead is a bitter pill, signaling a possible shift toward policies that prioritize progressive ideals over fiscal restraint. Yet, there’s a sliver of hope in Cuomo’s rising odds, a reminder that elections aren’t over until the votes are counted. The question is whether that momentum can build in time.
Adams’ stagnant 9% chance reflects a market unconvinced by his tenure, which might resonate with those frustrated by the status quo. Still, his persistence in the race shows a determination to defend his record. It’s a quiet fight, but one worth watching.
Sliwa’s low odds and the whispers of his potential exit underscore the challenges facing the Republican side in a city often tilted left. Even if he stays, the numbers suggest a tough road ahead for traditional conservative values in this contest. It’s a reality check for those hoping for a counterbalance to the dominant narrative.
As November 2025 approaches, Kalshi’s market will likely see even more action, with payouts looming around election day. The betting odds paint a picture of a city potentially on the cusp of a major ideological shift. For those skeptical of unchecked progressive policies, it’s a moment to pay close attention and engage in the democratic process.
Ultimately, while prediction markets like Kalshi aren’t crystal balls, they reflect a collective hunch—and right now, that hunch leans heavily toward Mamdani. Whether that translates to reality remains to be seen, but it’s a wake-up call for anyone concerned about the future of NYC’s governance. Let’s hope the voters, not just the bettors, have the final say.
