When Joe Biden was running for office, it seemed clear that the RFK Jr. campaign would impact Biden more than Trump.
With Harris in the race, the opposite now appears to be true.
Talking Points…
-Harris takes over for Biden
- RFK impact on race changes
- Analysis
The Democrat Party has no shame and has just shown Americans what the party is really about… power. They mask that desire by saying they are doing what is best for democracy when, in reality, they are subverting real democracy in a scrambling effort to try to save the 2024 election.
Joe Biden was being dominated by Donald Trump in polling, losing every battleground state, including the battleground states that are part of the Blue Wall that Democrats need to win an election. By the time Biden dropped out, his lead in most of those states was well beyond the margin of error, which created panic in the party, which then resulted in pressure being applied to Biden to force him to drop out of the race so Harris could run in his place.
After Harris took over for Biden, she not only tightened the race, but she surpassed Trump in national polling, reclaimed virtually every battleground state, and is now dominating the Blue Wall states again. One of the reasons this is happening is because of the campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy’s initial impact, which was taken away from Biden, but now the campaign is hurting Trump, partially explaining why Harris is quickly distancing herself from Trump.
Independent voters are key in these races, just as important as any minority demographic in terms of impacting a presidential race. Trump was getting that benefit before, but the momentum has changed. Jon Reinish, a Democrat strategist, explained:
“With the head-to-head of Biden-Trump, that head-to-head seemed to be pretty baked in, but the third party was a problem for the Democrats.
“That no longer — if the data is to be believed, and it looks credible — seems to be the case.”
Virtually every poll taken since Harris entered the race shows a big move in her favor when the independent candidates are dropped into the race, the exact opposite of what was taking place when it was Biden v. Trump.
For instance, in the latest Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin, Trump was leading Harris by one point in a head-to-head race, but Harris took a two-point lead in the race once the third-party candidates were added to the survey.
It was much the same when the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released was released. Harris was leading Trump by nine points in a head-to-head race, but when the third-party candidates were added to the race, Harris’s lead grew to 11 points.
This is just one more problem that Donald Trump and Republicans have to worry about with Biden out of the race and Harris in the race. This complicates things somewhat because the GOP was surely counting on RFK to hurt the Dems, not Trump and Republicans.
The only solace in this report for Trump is that Kennedy has been losing significant support and is now down to about five percent overall, down from a high of over 12% early in the race. Trump obviously needs to concentrate on Harris more to stop her massive surge, but he will also need to start attacking Kennedy more to get his support down to zero. As tight as this race is going to be, those one or two points could be the difference makers.
