Prior to the debate, Joe Biden was riding a nice little wave of momentum, having finally surpassed Trump in national average and eating into the battleground state lead that Trump had.
Post-debate, well, that is a different story.
Talking Points…
- Trump post-debate surge in polls
- Battleground state polls
- Analysis
Before the debate, Joe Biden had taken a slight lead over Trump in the national polling average. It was only 0.2%, but it was Biden's first lead in quite some time, so momentum was clearly on his side. However, that did not last long, as Biden is now getting dominated in the most recent polling.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll showed a 3-point swing in Trump's favor, now leading Joe Biden 49-43%. Trump also has a national average lead over Biden of 42.1 to 39.8%. The only polls that continue to have this race tight are the IPSOS/Reuters poll, which has Trump and Biden even at 40%. That poll also breaks down all possible Biden replacements, where Trump is beating everyone but Michelle Obama. Trump trails Obama 50-39%.
In the Wall Street Journal survey, Trump beat Biden by 2%, and in the latest CBS News poll, Trump beat Biden by 4%. Trump also beat Biden in the Yahoo News poll by 45-43%.
As I have mentioned in previous reports, Biden made up some ground in battleground state polls after Trump's conviction, but he is now losing ground there as well.
In Arizona, Trump has moved out to a commanding 5.7% lead overall. The same thing happened in Georgia, where Trump now led Biden by 7.2%. Joe Biden needs Michigan, but he took a massive hit there, from leading Trump to now Trump being ahead by 2.5%.
A state that could win up being a disaster for Biden is New Jersey, where he had a commanding lead against Trump of five points, but a poll that was just released now shows Trump ahead, 41-40%. The same thing happened in Pennsylvania, where Trump is now leading by 2.4%, with the most recent polling showing Trump up by 4%. Biden also lost his lead in Wisconsin, with Trump having an average lead of 1.7%, and the most recent poll by Marquette University showed a 3% lead for Trump.
Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy is trying to make lemonade out of lemons, stating:
"Both internal and outside polling confirm that the race remains incredibly tight and I agree with the Times that today's polling doesn't fundamentally change the course of the race.
"President Biden continues to narrow Trump's support among independents, and we have work to do to bring home our coalition — all the while Trump appears unable to expand his coalition."
Murphy is right in that the race remains tight, but her candidate is clearly trending in the wrong direction. Having said that, it is still hard to believe this is even a race when you consider Biden's debate performance.
While Trump is ahead in all of the key states, the margin in some of the blue wall states is still within touch for Biden. I do like that Trump has remained professional and knocked off his antics on Truth Social, and I believe that is paying off for him. If Trump can keep this image up and stay on point, I have to think this lead will only grow. Let's hope he is not his own worst enemy, as we have seen in the past, where something Trump does or says hurts him.
