POLL: Trump Now Holds Small Edge Over Biden

By Jerry McConway, updated on August 30, 2023

The latest Emerson College survey is out and there is a lot to unpack for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Trump made a decent move against Biden, more so with a third-party candidate introduced, but it is not all strawberries and whipped cream by any means.

Polling Concerns:

  • Why is Trump struggling to distance himself from Biden?
  • What is the impact if a third-party candidate runs?
  • Trump against the GOP field.
  • What happens if this turns into a heads-up race?
  • What are the experts saying?
  • Our take on recent polling numbers.

Getting Separation from Biden – Third-party Impact

The latest poll has Trump at 46 percent, and Biden at 44 percent.

That number goes up a few points if there is a third-party candidate, giving Trump a 44-39 edge over Biden…

It still astonishes me that Trump, as bad as Biden is doing, is still basically locked in a dead heat against Biden, but I do have my thoughts on that.

Trump, unfortunately, has fallen into his old habits, meaning he is playing only to his base and not really looking to draw in new voters.

Now they are actually alienating other GOP voters, and this is more about Trump’s Twitter guy, Alex Bruesewitz, who is a gaslighting machine. He non-stop trolls DeSantis and his supporters, then cries to the high heavens when DeSantis does something to fight back.

If you want to point a finger at one person if Trump falls short in a general election, it is Alex Bruesewitz.

Trump Against the Field

As you saw in those poll numbers, Trump is still dominating the field, but we did see some movement with DeSantis and Haley.

Mike Pence also got a surprising boost, moving up to seven prevent, but the rest of the field, save Ramaswamy, is dead right now.

When the next debate takes place, they must have 50,000 donors and be at least at three percent in polling, which is likely going to eliminate three or four of the remaining candidates.

I believe the next debate will be DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley, and possibly Pence and Christie, but that will be about it.

If Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.) can get some momentum, he might make it, but my hopes are not high for him at this point.

Let’s Go Head’s Up

Head’s up is flat-out the only way that Donald Trump can be defeated, and that remains up in the air.

Based on how Ramaswamy has been gushing over Trump, we have to assume the majority of his supporters just move to Trump, which puts Trump well over 50 percent. I honestly believe most of the remaining votes will head to DeSantis, which would put us around 60-40 in favor of Trump.

All of a sudden, this becomes a race.

The key for Trump… keep as many people in this race for as long as possible, at least through Super Tuesday, and he gets the win.

The So-called Experts Chime In…

Former President Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod has offered some honest assessments so far, and I think he hit the nail on the head when it comes to a possible third-party candidate being in the race.

Axelrod stated, “In 2016, the Green Party played an outsized role in tipping the election to Donald Trump. Now, with Cornel West as their likely nominee, they could easily do it again. Risky business.”

Right now, there is no third-party candidate that presents a danger to Trump, so Democrats should be very worried about this, especially if someone like Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) thinks about running as an Independent.

My Two Cents…

First and foremost, Trump needs to stop playing games with DeSantis and focus on the issues if he wants to do more than win a nomination.

Second, he has to beat these cases, especially the cases that are being brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith, as they have the potential to upend the entire race.

I really wish Trump never would have started this fight with DeSantis because they would have made a formidable duo, but any idea of that is now out the window.

As things stand today, I just don’t see how Trump loses, but all that changes if we are head-to-head before Super Tuesday, which will end up being the key date of this election.

If we are three or four-headed going into Super Tuesday, this race is over.

About Jerry McConway

Jerry McConway is an independent political author and investigator who lives in Dallas, Texas. He has spent years building a strong following of readers who know that he will write what he believes is true, even if it means criticizing politicians his followers support. His readers have come to expect his integrity.

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