Democratic Sen. John Fetterman’s favorability among Pennsylvania Republicans now surpasses that of Republican Sen. Dave McCormick, according to a new poll, confounding party lines and leaving strategists on both sides reevaluating their playbooks.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll conducted August 17, 21 found that 79% of Pennsylvania Republicans viewed Fetterman favorably, compared to 66% for McCormick, his own party’s senator. Only 17% of Republicans reported an unfavorable view of Fetterman, while just 10% said the same of McCormick. The survey, which asked likely voters across the state for their opinions on both senators, suggests Fetterman’s crossover appeal is more than a statistical fluke.
Fetterman’s high approval among Republicans stands out in a year marked by intense political polarization. It is even more striking given that Fetterman, a Democrat, has often found himself at odds with his own party, especially during President Trump’s second term. As previously reported, Fetterman has publicly criticized Democratic colleagues’ leftward drift, calling out the party’s “socialism problem” and refusing to campaign against Republican ally McCormick, a stance that has only fueled speculation about his political realignment. Fetterman’s criticism of Democratic leadership and his willingness to cooperate with McCormick have put daylight between him and the Democratic establishment.
Among all likely voters statewide, Fetterman led McCormick in favorability, with 49% viewing him positively and 43% negatively. McCormick trailed at 39% favorable and 30% unfavorable, with a larger share of voters either unfamiliar with him or declining to take a position, 21% said they didn’t know or refused to respond, compared to just 7% for Fetterman. These findings reflect not only Fetterman’s broader name recognition but also a pattern of political independence that sets him apart from party orthodoxy.
Democrats, for their part, are less enthusiastic about Fetterman: just 20% expressed a favorable opinion, while 69% viewed him unfavorably. McCormick received similar treatment from his own opposition, with only 18% of Democrats viewing him favorably and 49% unfavorably. Among independents, Fetterman again outperformed McCormick, garnering 54% favorable to McCormick’s 40%. These numbers highlight Fetterman’s unusual coalition in Pennsylvania politics, a trend already noted in his previous polling success with Republicans.
The poll also explored attitudes toward President Donald Trump. Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania said they strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while 39% approved. Notably, 47% of those surveyed said Fetterman’s position on Trump was “about right,” signaling a perception of balance or moderation. Thirty-eight percent felt Fetterman supported Trump too much, and 6% thought he opposed Trump too much.
These numbers come as Democrats target four Pennsylvania House seats in their bid to flip the U.S. House of Representatives in 2027. Fetterman, McCormick, and Trump are not expected to appear on the November ballot, but the poll suggests their popularity, or lack thereof, will shape the fortunes of down-ballot candidates. Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they would favor the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, while 44% chose the Republican. When asked which party they wanted to control the U.S. House, 53% preferred Democrats and 44% Republicans.
Former GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, who once represented Pennsylvania, cautioned Republicans running in battleground districts not to make the midterms a referendum on Trump. In an August 18 interview with CNN, Toomey argued, “First of all, I think if you are a Republican running in a competitive House district or a competitive statewide race, you don't want this to be a referendum on Donald Trump because he's very unpopular in those kinds of places.” He continued, “So, you want to localize the election.”
That advice lands at a time when Fetterman’s bipartisan appeal, especially his willingness to break with party lines on issues like artificial intelligence and foreign policy, has been well documented. As seen in his support for Trump’s AI policy, Fetterman has not hesitated to buck his own caucus, even as he rules out leaving the Democratic Party despite calling some colleagues “full-on communists.” Speculation about his future underscores the unpredictability he brings to the state’s political scene.
The poll leaves several questions on the table: How large was the sample? What was the margin of error? And what exactly accounts for the dramatic gap in Republican support between Fetterman and McCormick? The survey’s methodology, including how likely voters were identified, was not detailed in the Center Square report, and the precise polling questions were not disclosed.
Still, the numbers point to a changing landscape in Pennsylvania, a state that delivered its electoral votes to Trump in 2024, but where party labels are becoming less predictive of voter loyalty. Whether Fetterman’s bipartisan appeal is a passing phenomenon or a sign of deeper realignment remains to be seen.
It’s a reminder that in an era of party-line talking points, some voters are still looking for leaders willing to break the mold and challenge their own side, no matter what the party insiders think.
