The Democrat Party lives and dies by its support among minority voters across the board.
Biden, however, has put that at risk with his failed policies, and the latest poll out of Michigan reflects the national sentiment among minority voters, specifically black men and women.
Michigan is obviously a critical battleground state that will play a significant role in how the 2024 election turns out.
Currently, Donald Trump is beating Biden 46-41 in the latest EPIC-MRA poll. This is a state that Biden won in 2020 with a 51-48 margin.
The biggest change we see in the polling is the lack of support for Biden among minority voters, with only 62% of black voters in Michigan saying they would support Biden.
Compare that to 2020, when 92% of black voters were behind Biden.
For a Democrat, anything under 90% is a rarity in this demographic, but Biden is now barely above 60%, which is easily enough to turn an election in Trump's favor.
EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn had a harsh reality to break to Joe Biden and Democrats after seeing the results of this poll, stating:
"Democrats ought to be aware there is a growing possibility that Donald Trump may become president again."
On why Democrats stand to lose Michigan in the upcoming cycle, he explained:
"I think it's [Biden's] age and comparative perceptions of him versus Trump.
"People are dismissing the Bidenomics approach — they're not impressed with that messaging."
This is a really interesting development for Trump regarding the possibility of Trump winning the general election without DeSantis supporters.
I have stated numerous times that there is now a significant wedge between Donald Trump and the supporters of Ron DeSantis, who do not like the angle of attacks the Trump team is taking against DeSantis.
Assuming Trump wins the primary, most DeSantis voters will not pull the handle for him. They will either go third-party or vote on the down-ballot elections without voting in the presidential election.
That would account for more than 20% of GOP voters.
Trump clearly is not interested in uniting this block of voters, but maybe he plans to make up that 20 percent in other demographics, such as black voters.
If Trump can do that, he can offset the votes he loses with this war against DeSantis.
We will be able to make far better sense of this after the primary vote is over, and we see how Trump's legal problems play out as well as the first polling after the primary to see if the party will unite behind Trump or if DeSantis supporters have drawn a line in the sand and refuse to cross it.
That being said, the one question I would love for someone to put to Trump is how he expects to win back DeSantis voters after the attacks that are being levied against them and DeSantis by his internet campaign team right now.