A survey of 800 registered North Carolina voters found former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leading former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley by nearly 18 points in the state's U.S. Senate race, a margin far wider than two other recent polls of the same contest, raising questions about just how competitive the November matchup will be.
The survey, commissioned by Nexus Strategies for the group Healthier United and conducted March 8 and 9, asked voters a straightforward question: if the election were held today, would they vote for Cooper, Whatley, or Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray? Cooper drew 50 percent. Whatley pulled 32.3 percent. Bray collected four percent. And 13.8 percent remained undecided.
Those numbers look grim for Republicans on their face. But they don't exist in a vacuum, and two other recent surveys of the same race paint a considerably tighter picture.
A Carolina Journal poll conducted March 22, 23 put Cooper ahead 49 percent to 41 percent, an eight-point lead, not eighteen. A separate poll from Public Policy Polling, which Carolina Journal described as a Democratic-aligned firm, conducted March 13, 14 found Cooper at 47 percent and Whatley at 44 percent. That three-point gap fell within the poll's margin of error.
The spread between these surveys is striking. One shows a statistical dead heat. Another shows a comfortable but not insurmountable lead. The Nexus Strategies survey shows a rout. All three were conducted in March. All three sampled North Carolina registered voters. The discrepancy should give pause to anyone tempted to declare this race already decided.
The Nexus Strategies survey did not include a publicly stated margin of error in the available reporting, nor did it detail its methodology beyond the sample size and dates. That matters when the result diverges this sharply from other polls taken around the same time.
The race exists because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis decided not to seek a third term. That decision opened one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country. The Washington Times reported that North Carolina primary voters set up the Whatley-Cooper matchup in a contest that "will help decide which party controls the Senate."
Tillis's retirement itself reshaped the landscape. The incumbent had drawn attention for clashing with fellow Republicans on key personnel decisions, and his departure left the GOP without the advantages of incumbency in a state that has swung between parties in recent cycles.
Fox News described the race as high-stakes, noting that "Whatley hopes to maintain Republicans' grip on the seat, and a Cooper win could throw the Senate's Republican majority into jeopardy." Republicans cannot afford to lose seats they already hold if they want to keep governing.
Cooper, for his part, has framed himself as a pragmatic moderate. He told the Washington Times, "I'm running for Senate to be an independent voice for North Carolinians, and I'll work with anyone to make stuff cost less for families in our state." That kind of positioning is familiar from Democratic candidates who need to win over unaffiliated voters in purple states, and the polling shows why Cooper is leaning into it.
The Nexus Strategies survey found Cooper winning unaffiliated voters by a lopsided margin: 48.8 percent to Whatley's 25.5 percent, with 5.1 percent going to Bray and 19.6 percent unsure. If those numbers hold anywhere close to that shape, Whatley has a serious problem with the voters who decide close elections in North Carolina.
Party loyalty numbers told a more predictable story. Among Republicans, 71.3 percent backed Whatley. Among Democrats, 87.5 percent sided with Cooper. That gap, Cooper consolidating a larger share of his own base, is the kind of asymmetry that compounds fast when independents also break your way.
The survey also tested favorability for President Trump. Among all respondents, 53.4 percent viewed Trump unfavorably compared to 40 percent favorable. Among unaffiliated voters, the split was worse: 57.3 percent unfavorable, 32.3 percent favorable. In a race where the Republican candidate ran the president's national party apparatus, those numbers create a headwind that Whatley will need to navigate carefully.
Broader Senate dynamics remain in flux across the country. In other chambers, Democrats have pushed aggressive redistricting strategies to reshape the political map. North Carolina's Senate race will be fought on the existing lines, and on the records of the two candidates.
Whatley has not been running a passive campaign. He has hammered Cooper on criminal justice and public safety, two issues where the former governor's record offers material for attack. Whatley told Breitbart News Daily in October that Cooper was "grandstanding on letting criminals out of jail."
"He signed an executive order that let 3,500 prisoners out of jail in North Carolina, about 1/8 of the state's prison population. Just released them."
That claim, attributed to Whatley, points to a specific executive action during Cooper's time as governor. The number, 3,500 inmates, roughly one-eighth of the state prison population, is the kind of figure that resonates with voters who prioritize public safety. Whether Cooper's team disputes the characterization or the context remains an open question in the available reporting.
Whatley has also tied Cooper to a specific case that drew national attention. Decarlos Brown, described as a serial arrestee with 14 prior arrests, was accused of fatally stabbing Iryna Zarutska, a Ukrainian refugee, on a trail in August. Brown had been released by Magistrate Judge Teresa Stokes, who served under Judge Roy Wiggins, a Cooper appointee from 2018.
Rep. Mark Harris of North Carolina weighed in directly on the Stokes matter:
"The entire NC Republican delegation called for the removal of Magistrate Judge Teresa Stokes for letting Iryna Zarutska's murderer out on the streets. Her lenient interpretation of the pretrial release statutes calls into question her fitness for service."
Wiggins, who supervises Stokes, has not fired her. The chain of appointments, Cooper to Wiggins, Wiggins overseeing Stokes, Stokes releasing Brown, gives Whatley a direct line from the Democratic candidate to a deadly outcome. That is a potent argument on the campaign trail, even if Cooper had no direct role in the release decision itself.
Fox News reported that immigration has also emerged as a key issue, with Whatley attacking Cooper over vetoes of multiple bills that would have required greater local cooperation with ICE. "If Roy Cooper had not vetoed legislation that would have forced sheriffs to honor the ICE detainers, then these people would not have been on the street," Whatley said.
The interplay between criminal justice, immigration enforcement, and public safety is not unique to North Carolina. Across the political landscape, even some Democrats have broken with their party's progressive wing on questions of enforcement and accountability. Whether Cooper can hold the center on these issues while Whatley presses from the right will shape the fall campaign.
Whatley has made clear where he stands on the broader Republican platform. He said President Trump told him directly, "I need you to run." And Whatley has embraced that endorsement fully.
"President Trump, for the last, you know, ten years, has said that we need to have a strong economy, we need to have secure borders, and we need America to be respected around the world. That's exactly the agenda that I'm going to run for."
That message, economy, borders, strength abroad, is the standard Republican framework heading into 2026. The question is whether it lands in a state where unaffiliated voters, at least in one survey, are breaking hard against the Republican brand.
Whatley's challenge is not ideological clarity. He has that. His challenge is persuasion, specifically, persuading the nearly 20 percent of unaffiliated voters who remain undecided and the broader swath who currently view Trump unfavorably. Running as the former RNC chairman gives him organizational credibility. It also makes it harder to distance himself from any national Republican headwinds.
Three polls in a single month producing margins of 3, 8, and 18 points should make everyone cautious. The race is clearly competitive. Cooper clearly leads. But the size of that lead is genuinely uncertain.
The Nexus Strategies survey was commissioned by Healthier United, a group whose political leanings and interests are not detailed in the available reporting. The methodology beyond sample size and dates is not specified. And the result is an outlier compared to the Carolina Journal and Public Policy Polling surveys taken just days later.
None of this means Whatley is in a strong position. A candidate trailing in every available poll, including one from a Democratic-aligned firm that still shows him down three, has work to do. But the breathless framing of an 18-point lead deserves the same scrutiny any poll deserves, especially when other data from the same month tells a materially different story.
North Carolina has a way of producing close elections. Voters there split their tickets, shift late, and punish candidates who take them for granted. Roy Cooper knows that from his years in Raleigh. Michael Whatley should know it from his years running a national party.
Polls measure a snapshot. Elections measure a choice. And in North Carolina, the choice hasn't been made yet.
