California Governor Gavin Newsom is leading against former Vice President Kamala Harris in a speculative 2028 presidential primary poll, revealing increasing enthusiasm among Democratic voters in the state.
According to Daily Caller, the survey shows Newsom ahead with 25% support compared to Harris's 19% among registered Democratic voters in California.
The study, conducted by Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab, sheds light on growing speculation concerning both Newsom and Harris potentially pursuing a presidential bid in 2028. Released on a Wednesday, the poll highlights Newsom's significant backing, with 75% of Democratic voters expressing enthusiasm for his candidacy compared to 67% for Harris. This enthusiasm factor may reflect Newsom's active presence in the political arena.
Gavin Newsom's presence in the media, due to his efforts to gerrymander California's House map, may contribute to his support. According to Jack Citrin, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, Newsom's frequent media appearances likely enhance public perception. Citrin remarked on the importance of visibility in politics, reinforcing the role media exposure plays in garnering support.
Jack Citrin stated, “There’s affection for her [Harris], but maybe less confidence that she would be a strong candidate.” He added, “[Newsom is] in the news every day. If you think someone is running, you’re more likely to support them.”
While Newsom remains a central figure in the political media landscape, his comments to the Wall Street Journal indicate a measured approach to a potential campaign. He noted that he is “not thinking about running,” but acknowledges it as a “path” he could see “unfold.”
Vice President Harris's recent announcement further fuels speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. On June 30, Harris confirmed she will not seek the governor's seat in California in 2026, suggesting a focus on national politics. Despite her 2024 presidential election defeat to Donald Trump, Harris maintains a significant following among Democratic voters.
Accentuating her potential challenge, the poll results reflect Harris trailing Newsom, drawing 19% support. Her political rapport remains strong, though, with a considerable portion of Democratic voters keen on her leadership capabilities. However, the question of her perceived viability as a candidate continues lingering among constituents.
Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also feature prominently in the poll as potential Democratic contenders. Buttigieg, previously the Secretary of Transportation, garnered 13% in the poll, signaling continued interest among Democratic voters. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez followed closely with 10% support.
The polling methodology incorporated a sample of 1,445 registered voters, with an oversampling of Hispanic voters. Conducted in both English and Spanish, the poll carries a margin of error of plus/minus 2.6% for the full sample. Additionally, a separate study engaged 512 subscribers to Politico Pro, with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.7%.
The upcoming years may intensify the political dynamics among these prominent figures. Both Newsom and Harris enjoy significant political accolades, but public perception and strategic positioning will undoubtedly influence their potential campaigns. Each candidate's political trajectory remains under scrutiny as the Democratic field continues to shape up.
In summary, the Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll reflects Democratic voter sentiment in California, showing Gavin Newsom slightly ahead of Kamala Harris. The hypothetical contest anticipates potential presidential ambitions for both politicians in 2028. Yet, the future remains uncertain as political maneuvers unfold and more contenders emerge. As of now, the data provides insight into current political preferences within the Democratic base in California.
