New York lost a larger share of the nation's millionaires than any other state over the past decade, and the price tag is staggering. A new analysis from the Citizen Budget Commission found that the Empire State's slice of America's millionaire population dropped from 12.7 percent to 8.7 percent between 2010 and 2022, costing Albany an estimated $10.7 billion in foregone personal income tax revenue in a single year.
The findings, reported by the New York Post, land at a moment when Mayor Zohran Mamdani is pushing to squeeze even more from the wealthy, and when the state's fiscal trajectory depends on people who increasingly have the means and the motive to leave.
The CBC's "Competitive NYS: Value Proposition Tracker" dashboard paints a picture of a state that grew its millionaire count in absolute terms, roughly 34,000 more than in 2010, but fell behind badly in relative terms. New York's millionaire population doubled over the period. California's and Texas's tripled. Florida's quadrupled. The result: New York slid from second in the nation to fourth in total millionaires, trailing all three of those states.
The CBC modeled what New York's income tax collections would have looked like had the state held its 2010 share of millionaires through 2022. The gap was enormous. The commission stated plainly:
"Had New York maintained its share of the nation's millionaires over the past decade, personal income tax collections would have been substantially higher, roughly $10.7 billion more in tax year 2022."
That number matters because New York's budget machine runs on high earners. Jared Walczak, a senior fellow at the Tax Foundation, put it bluntly:
"In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year, so New York's revenue is very reliant on high earners to stay in New York, and that has been a challenge in recent years."
New York already leads the nation in state and local taxes collected. Per capita collections stand at $12,495, 78 percent above the national average. The state ranks last for tax competitiveness in the Tax Foundation's assessment. And yet the political class in Albany and City Hall keeps reaching for the same lever.
Mayor Mamdani has made taxing the wealthy a centerpiece of his governing identity. He filmed a social media video outside hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin's $238 million Manhattan penthouse, celebrating the pied-à-terre tax on luxury second homes. Griffin responded by threatening to pull a $6 billion Park Avenue development project.
When reporters asked Mamdani about the CBC study, he dismissed concerns that the wealthy would flee. He argued that New York had actually gained millionaires even after past Albany tax increases, a point that is technically true in raw numbers but ignores the study's central finding: New York's share collapsed relative to competing states.
Mamdani framed his position as a matter of justice, telling reporters:
"I've been very clear about the fact that we live in the wealthiest city in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, and it's unacceptable that one in four New Yorkers are living in poverty, and I believe that the wealthiest can do a little bit more to ensure that everyone can afford to live here."
That rhetoric plays well at press conferences. It does not explain how the city plans to fund its obligations when the tax base keeps thinning. Mamdani already had to abandon a proposed property tax hike after public backlash, leaving a $5.4 billion budget hole unresolved.
The CBC data show that New York has lost more population to every state than it has gained from them. Florida and Texas are the biggest beneficiaries. The pattern accelerated during the pandemic, when former Governor Andrew Cuomo hiked income taxes on high earners, a move that coincided with a mass exodus from New York City.
The city's population did rebound in 2023 and 2024, but the CBC noted that the recovery was driven by international immigrants, not by the return of the high-earning residents who fund the budget.
Abir Mandal, a senior state policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, warned that the state's dependence on its financial sector is not a permanent guarantee. She pointed to Elon Musk's decision to move his companies from California to Texas as an example of what happens when states push too hard.
"Wall Street is the golden goose. But for how long?"
That question has taken on new urgency. Major financial firms have already started looking elsewhere, with Apollo recently choosing Austin over New York for a second headquarters.
The CBC's dashboard revealed a state splitting in two. A "growth corridor" running from New York City and Long Island up to Albany largely drives the state's economy. Outside that strip, the picture is bleak. The North Country and Southern Tier have seen consistent population declines. Rural and upstate regions are losing workers at an alarming pace.
Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, said the data should serve as a warning:
"It's difficult to not be alarmed by this data. With this CBC tool, Upstate New Yorkers can see for themselves the devastating impacts of Albany's policies, businesses failing to grow, population decline, and the loss of revenue. NYS needs to course correct now before it's too late and we become permanently entrenched in a cycle of fewer people."
Ken Girardin, a research fellow at the Manhattan Institute, pointed to specific Albany policies that have made the state less competitive. He cited the tightened rent control law approved in 2019 and the state's green energy mandate as factors that have constrained housing supply and driven up energy costs.
"Albany is directly responsible for the stagnation."
Medicaid spending offers another window into the problem. New York's Medicaid costs are projected to reach $58 billion by the end of the decade, a sum that requires a growing, high-earning tax base to sustain. The CBC data suggest that base is eroding.
Governor Kathy Hochul, who faces re-election in November, has tried to thread the needle. She firmly opposed an outright tax hike on the wealthy this year while backing the pied-à-terre tax on luxury second homes. Pied-à-terre tax notices are set to go out to affected homeowners on August 30.
Mamdani has shown no such restraint. His approach to governance has consistently prioritized ideological signaling over fiscal caution. He used America's 250th birthday celebration to denounce capitalism and law enforcement, a choice that tells you where his priorities lie.
Walczak, the Tax Foundation economist, noted that the mayor's powers alone are limited. But the signal Mamdani sends to the market is not.
"Gracie Mansion can't do it on its own; it takes Albany. Pied-à-terre will have some impact, but there's this feeling that New York isn't done raising taxes, and with other places being more competitive, it won't be surprising if high-earner taxpayers choose to relocate."
That "feeling" is exactly the problem. Wealthy individuals and the firms that employ them do not wait for the next tax hike to land before they start planning. They read the political signals, consult their accountants, and move. Mamdani built unusual star power in his first 100 days, drawing celebrity endorsements and large crowds, but star power does not close a budget gap when the people writing the biggest checks are heading south.
Steve Fulop, CEO of the Partnership for New York City, offered perhaps the most pointed warning in the entire debate:
"If we don't course-correct and get laser-focused on keeping the city and state attractive to the people and businesses that drive our economy, the affordability crisis will only deepen because the people leaving are the ones paying the largest share of a budget that funds the social programs meant to help our most vulnerable."
Read that again. The people Mamdani says he wants to help, the one in four New Yorkers he describes as living in poverty, depend on a tax base that his own policies are helping to shrink. His instinct to lecture New Yorkers rather than listen to them has become a pattern.
Mandal, the Tax Foundation analyst, summed up the structural challenge in a single sentence:
"Without reforming the tax structure New York won't be competitive for attracting population and business."
New York's political leaders have spent the better part of a decade treating high earners as an inexhaustible resource, a piggy bank that never runs dry no matter how many times you shake it. The CBC's numbers say otherwise. The millionaires did not vanish. They moved to states that wanted their business.
You can film all the social media videos outside penthouse buildings you want. The moving trucks don't watch.
