If you read our reports regularly, you know that I believe the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are likely to decide this election.
Of those three states, experts are starting to lean into the idea that this election will be his if Trump can win just one of those states, preferably Michigan.
Talking Points…
- Blue Wall state polling
- Why Michigan is the key
- Analysis
As of this writing, Kamala Harris is holding a 1.7% edge over Trump in Michigan in the average of all polls. However, in the most recent Insider Advantage poll, Trump took a 1% lead. To that point, Harris had led Trump, but Trump was making up ground, so the trends were clearly in his favor.
In Pennsylvania, Harris currently has a 0.7% lead in the national average of all polls. This state has been back and forth since Harris took over for Biden, starting with them dead even, and then the lead bounced between them. In the most recent poll, which is again the Insider Advantage, Trump now has a 2% lead.
The state where Trump shockingly continues to struggle is Wisconsin, with Harris holding a firm 2.9% advantage in national polling. Trump has made up ground from down as much as 3.8% in the average and as much as 5% in a poll. The three most recent polls have Trump down 3%, 3%, and 2%, so he is trending in the right direction here.
If Harris is going to win, I believe she has to win all three of these Blue Wall states, but if she can pull off an upset in another battleground state expected to go to Trump, such as Georgia, she may be able to get by with two out of three. If Trump wins two of the three, I don’t see a path to victory for Harris, but some experts appear to believe that Trump needs only Michigan to take this election.
According to election numbers guru Nate Silver, if Trump wins Michigan, he is 95% to win the election. I would imagine that Trump is aware of this, as his campaign has a heavy concentration of upcoming events in Michigan right through election day. Michigan’s demographic actually gives a window into the likely outcome of other states, with Michigan-based pollster Ed Sarpolus stating:
“We have become our own bellwether of a traditional voter.
“We have labor, we have the black voter, a little bit of everybody. If you can’t win in Michigan, how are you going to win in North Carolina?”
Rep. Elise Slotkin (D-MI) has not missed this. She is now in a very close race with Republican Mike Rogers for the open Senate seat. She recently sent out a campaign letter expressing her concern over Trump winning the state, stating that you cannot win the Senate of the White House without taking Michigan.
According to Sarpolus, the state will depend on voter turnout. The state has a 73% white population, with Republicans locked into about 52% of that vote. If Democrats are to win, they need the other demographics in the state to turn out in large numbers, or they will not be able to make up the deficit.
That being said, this election comes down to enthusiastic voters. After Joe Biden dropped out of the race, there was a massive surge in enthusiasm from voters on the left, with the Democrat Party surging from 55% to 78%, which is utterly baffling to me considering how unpopular Harris was leading up to her nomination. After its convention, the GOP got a slight bump, now sitting at 64%. So, Trump and company need to do something to not only take the steam out of Harris’ campaign but also to give the GOP a bolt of lightning in terms of getting voters off their couches to vote in this election.
