Legal Experts Say Trump Likely To Win Ballot Case In Supreme Court

 February 10, 2024

The heart of this contention lies in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, which led Colorado's highest court to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment, a decision that the Supreme Court is now reviewing with an inclination to overturn.

The case has drawn significant attention, not just for its implications for Trump, but for the broader ramifications it holds for American democracy and the judiciary's role in political disputes. The conservative lean of the Supreme Court has been evident, with skepticism voiced over the arguments presented for Trump's disqualification. This skepticism has led to speculation of a ruling that could set a precedent on states' powers in determining ballot eligibility.

Legal scholars and experts across the political spectrum are closely monitoring the developments. Among them, Eric Segall and Steve Vladeck have been vocal, emphasizing the Court's likely favorable disposition towards Trump. Vladeck, in particular, foresees a broad consensus among the justices, irrespective of their ideological standings.

Steve Vladeck’s anticipation resonates with many, highlighting the potential unanimous or near-unanimous decision:
"States can’t unilaterally disqualify candidates running for President on the ground that they engaged in insurrection. This case, anticipated to result in a 7-2 to 9-0 decision for Trump, underscores the Court's reluctance to allow states to independently interpret and act on such allegations."

Impact on Political Landscape and Potential for Violence

The Supreme Court's involvement in this political fray is not without its critics. Observers express concern over the judiciary entering territories traditionally reserved for the political branches, Yahoo reported.

The risk, as some see it, is not just in the immediate fallout of the decision but in the precedent it sets for future electoral disputes. The possibility of political violence, irrespective of the outcome, adds a layer of urgency to the Court's deliberations.

Rachel Kleinfeld, an expert on conflict and governance, starkly outlines the dual-edged nature of the situation:
"Violence is likely no matter what happens. The anticipation of the Supreme Court's ruling, whether in favor or against Trump, poses a significant risk of inciting further discord and potentially violence among an already polarized populace."

Legal and Political Repercussions of Supreme Court Decision

The broader implications for the Supreme Court itself are also under scrutiny. Its legitimacy, in the eyes of the public, could face challenges, especially with the looming possibility of Trump's re-election and more related cases on the horizon.

The court's integrity and perceived neutrality are at stake, a sentiment echoed by The Wall Street Journal in its analysis of the case's ramifications beyond the immediate political cycle.

Legal experts like Jeffrey Rosen contemplate the long-term consequences, including the intriguing question of whether a president can pardon himself. Such considerations underscore the complexity of the legal and constitutional questions the Supreme Court's ruling could address.


The U.S. Supreme Court's pending decision on former President Donald Trump's eligibility for state primary ballots casts a long shadow not just over the immediate future of American politics but also over the role of the judiciary in electoral disputes.

The case, rooted in the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and Colorado's subsequent disqualification of Trump under the 14th Amendment, highlights the tension between state rights and federal oversight, the potential for political violence, and the ramifications for the Supreme Court's legitimacy.

With legal scholars predicting a likely victory for Trump, the ruling will undoubtedly reverberate through the political and legal landscapes, challenging the boundaries of constitutional interpretation and the judiciary's involvement in the electoral process.

About Victor Winston

Victor is a freelance writer and researcher who focuses on national politics, geopolitics, and economics.

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