There is already panic starting to brew regarding the 2024 election.
If polling holds or is anywhere close to what it is now, this election will come down to the wire, which many believe would create massive chaos around the country.
Talking Points…
- Current polling
- Fearing chaos
- Analysis
As far as national polling goes, Kamala Harris appears to be locked in at around 2.8%, which is a dangerous number for Democrats. Because of the heavy concentration of Democrats in states like New York and California, we know Democrats are going to win the popular vote most of the time in a close election. That being said, they need a margin of about 4% to feel comfortable about the Electoral College, and they clearly do not have that right now.
As we all know, this will come down to the battleground states. If all states hold true, Trump would need to win at least one key Blue Wall state, but two would surely do it to lock down this election. In the last two polls, Trump is ahead of Harris in Michigan, but by less than 4%. Trump has moved ahead of Harris in the last three polls taken for Pennsylvania, but again, his lead is 3% or less. Trump continues to trail Harris in Wisconsin, but the latest run of polls has been volatile, suggesting that Trump is starting to pick up ground.
If I had to guess, I would say that Trump would take at least one of those states. And if that is the case, it would mean that Trump would need to come out ahead in the other key battleground states to be assured of a win.
In Arizona, Trump has a narrow lead of about 1%, so this state is still a tossup. Georgia appears to be much the same as Harris and Trump and is in a dead heat in recent polls. Nevada is also dead-even, with Harris and Trump trading 1% leads in the most recent polling.
There are a handful of other key states, such as North Carolina, where Trump maintains a slight lead, and Virginia, which is now firmly in the hands of Harris. That is a huge disappointment when considering a Republican won the last gubernatorial race. There is a lot of chatter about Florida and Texas falling, but Trump still holds a 4% lead in Florida and a 5% lead in Texas. Having said that, both states are still a little too close for comfort when you consider how successful the GOP was in both of those states during the last cycle.
Both sides of the aisle are pumping out the rhetoric that already has people convinced this election will not be on the up-and-up. Democrats are accusing Republicans of trying to oppress voters, and the GOP continues to accuse Democrats of cheating. For instance, Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO), stated:
“A reasonable person has to be concerned with the rhetoric that’s coming out of certain states and certainly out of the Trump campaign. Once again they’re setting the stage whereby any loss will be blamed on corruption at the ballot box, even when there’s no possible support for that allegation.
“I am concerned that there’s going to be chaos. They’re going to try to slow things down. If it looks like they’re losing, the Trump campaign will try every avenue possible.”
For Republicans, Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) stated:
“We got to make sure it’s done the right way. That is why we wanted the SAVE Act.
“Unfortunately, a lot of the states are giving out drivers’ licenses and identification to a lot of people that aren’t citizens of this country. I think that’s the biggest thing people are going to complain about … it’s the count of the illegals voting in this election. It could decide an election.”
As we get closer to the election, the rhetoric on both sides will kick up, and people on both sides are getting antsy. If we have a close election and this comes down to a state like PA not turning in its official numbers until days after the election, and if Harris comes from behind to win, there will surely be chaos.
I have stated several times that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten so bad that regardless of who wins, I think we are going to see rioting. If Harris wins, Trump will say he was cheated, and his supporters will explode. If Trump wins, the Dems pull the race card and continue to push the threat to democracy as well as accusing the right of oppressing the vote in minority neighborhoods. And while both sides step back, it will be the American people who will be at each other’s throats, providing entertainment for our political elite.
