When Joe Biden was still in this election, Donald Trump was dominating every key battleground state, including the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Harris entering the race changed that, initially taking the lead, but the numbers have not been so good since the DNC, and the trend is clearly now favoring Trump.
Talking Points…
- Polling collapsing for Harris in Blue Wall states
- Harris campaign being forced to pivot
- Analysis
In a recent report, I posted these polling updates:
On August 24, Harris led Trump by 3.4% in Michigan, but that lead has been cut down to 2.4% on the national average, and the most recent Trafalgar poll had them dead even at 47% each.
On August 15, Harris had her biggest lead in PA, ahead by 2.3%, but that lead is now down to 1.2%, with the most recent Emerson College poll having them deadlocked at 49%.
On August 22, Harris was beating Trump by 3.8% in Wisconsin, but that lead is now also down, at 3.2%. And again, the most recent Trafalgar Group survey now has Trump ahead 47-46%, and the most recent Emerson College poll had Trump ahead 50-49%.
Now, Trump is still not out of the woods here, but you guys all know that I prefer to study trends rather than numbers. With only a week away from early voting starting in some states and two months before the election, the trends now completely favor Trump. And believe me, the Harris campaign has noticed.
Harris clearly thought she had those Blue Wall states wrapped up, but this latest round of polling has created a bit of panic in her campaign, especially since Donald Trump is battleground state-heavy over the next few weeks. Also, Harris is being forced to visit the blue state she thought she had locked up.
For instance, she has been slipping in polling in New Hampshire and Minnesota, the home state of her VP, so some extra stops have been added to her campaign. In the latest Emerson College poll, Harris’ lead in New Hampshire is down to a mere four points, a state where she once enjoyed a more than seven-point lead against Trump. A University of New Hampshire poll backs that up, showing Harris at only five points ahead of Trump.
Harris once enjoyed a 9.2-point lead in Minnesota, but again, that has been chopped right in half. In the latest SurveyUSA, Harris is now leading Trump 48% to 43%, down from 50-40% in late July. So, Harris has had to add both of these states to her campaign and lean on surrogates to hit these states and the Blue Wall states noted above that she has to have in order to win this election.
The upcoming schedules of Harris, Walz, and Doug Emhoff have caught a lot of people’s attention. For instance, Harris is going to New Hampshire on Wednesday, Walz will be campaigning in Minnesota, and Emhoff is headed to Virginia, a state where Democrats were expected to win, but Trump has cut the lead to a mere three points. Joe Biden is also being recruited to hit the Blue Wall states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Harris’ lead is collapsing quite quickly.
Now, if you guys read my reports regularly, you know I have stated numerous times that it would not be until mid-September that we have a realistic feel for how this election will play out. Having said that, Harris did not get the expected boost from the convention, and the polls are now all clearly trending toward Trump. It seems like the more people see Harris, the less they like her, which is very similar to how we saw the 2020 primary race play out.
The big factor now will be the upcoming debate on September 10, where rumors have Harris looking to attack Trump more than focus on policy. I think this will be a significant mistake because Trump has more than enough on Harris to counterpunch and he actually has policies to attack this administration as well as Harris. I expect Trump to win this debate with the rules as they are today, so, as I stated before, we will have a much better idea of this race in about two weeks, but I can tell you that right now, all the trends are favoring Trump. He just needs to remain on point, hammer policy, and leave the personal attacks to his surrogates and by October, I think he will have the polling back in his favor.
