A recent poll is stirring the political pot, suggesting that if an election were held today, former President Donald Trump could predictably outstrip current President Joe Biden in the Electoral College.
A Stack Data Strategy poll indicates Trump defeating Biden 292 to 246 in the Electoral College, despite a slim lead for Biden in the popular vote.
This poll sampled 15,205 respondents between October 13 and November 3, 2022, revealing Biden losing critical ground in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, which Biden won narrowly in 2020, are now leaning towards Trump, with margins under 1.5 points.
Trump's lead seems particularly noticeable in Georgia and Pennsylvania, where he's ahead by 2.3 and 3.3 points, respectively. The shifting electoral scenery is causing a stir among Democrats as they grapple with the implications for Biden's re-election chances.
Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, spoke on these findings:
"Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win... Despite recent calls for change, our polling shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, [and] President Trump would beat both of Biden's possible replacements by an even greater margin."
These results have not only raised eyebrows but also concerns among Democrats. The poll shows that Trump could defeat potential Biden replacements such as Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom by even wider margins, which has left many Democrats worried about the 2024 election.
Democrats are visibly concerned about these developments. The poll reveals a potential weakening of Biden's appeal to crucial voter blocs, a factor critical in the upcoming elections. It raises questions about the party's strategy and ability to rally support.
Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed his concerns candidly, saying he was concerned that Trump's electoral viability remains intact Despite various controversies surrounding him.
The poll also explored the possibility of a competitive third-party "unity ticket," but the results offer no optimism. The data shows neither party would benefit from changing its candidate, further solidifying Trump's position.
Adding to Democrats' worries is the perception among crucial voter blocs. Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, shared his insights into the 2020 election and what it could mean for Biden's reelection chances.
“People fundamentally misunderstood what black voters said in 2020... The depth of support was never there. The enthusiasm was never there for Biden. We were very pragmatic. We knew he was the best chance to beat Trump.”
