Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a real shot in this election as a third-party candidate, but the chips would have to fall in a particular fashion for him to win.
This week, however, his campaign was hit with a setback when a top adviser resigned due to an "increasingly hateful and divisive atmosphere."
Talking Points…
- Kennedy making headway
- Shock resignation
- Analysis
It has been a long time since this country has seen a third-party candidate who could actually win a presidential election, but we are seeing it now. Two fairly unpopular candidates with low approval ratings top the two main tickets, with Kennedy coming in as an independent to sweep up the crumbs.
To that point, Kennedy is polling around 15% nationally right now, even higher in some key battleground states. Can he win as things sit today? Absolutely not, but if Biden crashes and burns in the debates or if Trump gets convicted and cannot win his appeal, Kennedy's campaign could catch fire. Having said that, Kennedy has to be perfect.
Nothing will derail a campaign like a top staffer resigning that cites problems such as a toxic atmosphere or sexual misconduct allegations. We saw what happened to Kamala Harris when she was running for president, and now the same thing is happening to Kennedy.
His campaign continues to gain ground, but that may be halted after the resignation of Angela Stanton King. King was Kennedy's adviser for black outreach, which could not be bigger in a campaign year when Democrats are losing a significant chunk of minority voters. Biden is polling in the high 60s and low 70s among black voters, which is about 20 points shy of the norm, so there is a massive opportunity here.
That opportunity goes away when your outreach adviser in that demographic starts to throw around allegations of toxicity in the workplace, which is what King claimed in her resignation, which was announced on X on Tuesday night. She posted:
"After much reflection, I've decided to step away from the political theatre. The increasingly hateful and divisive atmosphere no longer aligns with my values.
"I will continue to advise RFK, Jr. on key community issues. Now, it's time for me to pursue peace and fully dedicate myself to my nonprofit work, supporting pregnant women and returning citizens. This new chapter excites me, as I focus on making a tangible difference where it's needed most."
After she had posted her resignation, reports started to surface that she had actually been fired from the Kennedy campaign, which she rebutted on Wednesday, posting:
"Reports that I've been let go from the RFK campaign for ANY reason are 100% ABSOLUTELY FALSE."
King was considered a bit of a coup for Kennedy when she joined his campaign because she had been working with Republicans before this. After being pardoned by Trump in 2020 on auto theft charges, she ran for the Atlanta state legislature as a Republican. She then worked with Senate candidate Herschel Walker in his failed campaign.
Republicans would have loved to have had her aboard with Trump in 2024, but Kennedy managed to get her behind his campaign. Her resignation has to be a significant blow to Kennedy because this is where Democrats are most vulnerable, but her resignation could now actually help Trump gain more ground on the minority front. This is definitely something to keep an eye on as we move forward in this election and try to figure out just how much of an impact Kennedy will have on this race.
