There are a lot of questions about Kari Lake and her ability to win a Senate seat in Arizona after failing to win the gubernatorial election in the last big election cycle.
If her fundraising is any sign of the support she is receiving, this race will be challenging for Lake to win, although Democrats definitely noticed her significant boost in fundraising.
Talking Points…
- Lake takes in massive haul in first quarter
- State of the Arizona Senate election
- Analysis
Donald Trump has a nearly perfect record in primary races, but he was crushed in key battleground general election seats in 2022. We are heading into another cycle in 2024, and Donald Trump’s handprint is all over GOP general election candidates again. A key race everyone will be watching will be the Arizona Senate seat being vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who has decided to step aside and let Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake fight it out for the seat.
With Trump’s backing, Lake is starting to see some significant donations made to her account, scoring a $4.1 million haul in the first quarter of 2024, leaving her with $2.5 million cash on hand. Gallego, however, did much better, raising $7.5 million, leaving him with $9.6 million in the bank. After the reports were announced, a Lake spokesperson stated:
“Kari Lake doubled her fundraising haul from last quarter. She is seeing strong from grassroots donors and Arizona donors.
“Gallego is Far-Left, and out of step with Arizonans. Just like President Trump, Kari is performing strong in Arizona and will win in November.”
With the recent Arizona abortion law decision, abortion will be the top issue for Arizona in this election if Gallego has anything to do with it. Skimming through his social media accounts, just about every post shows Lake’s stance on abortion or Gallego meeting with women and/or announcing his pledge to fight the law and restore women’s right to choose in this election.
So far, that strategy has worked for him, as he has started to separate from Lake in polling. The last poll posted on FiveThirtyEight was conducted by RABA Research, showing Gallego with an eight-point lead against Lake. That is a significant change from the February 21 poll by Rasmussen Reports, where Lake was up by four points.
Real Clear Polling also has Gallego in the lead now, showing its last poll from The Hill-Emerson, which showed Gallego with a six-point lead and an overall average of Gallego holding a 4.5-point lead over Lake. 270ToWin also has Gallego in the lead, reporting a six-point lead for an average of the most recent polling, including the last poll taken in April, with Gallego pulling out to an eight-point lead over Lake.
Kari Lake has tried to pivot from her previous position on Abortion, where she had stated that she fully supported the 1864 abortion ban that was recently upheld by the court, calling it a “great law.” Lake is now falling in line with the Trump narrative that exceptions are needed that would protect the mother’s health as well as exceptions for incest and rape. Gallego, however, is hammering Lake on this subject, highlighting her previous comments saying that he will not let Lake “distort the record.”
We all saw the results of the 2020 and 2022 elections, where abortion cost Republicans significantly right across the board. Lake’s race was always going to be tight, but now that Sinema has dropped out, she truly faces an uphill battle as most of Sinema’s support has moved over to Gallego. This seat is considered a “must-have” for the GOP to flip the Senate back to Republican control, so Lake is going to have to figure this out, and she is going to need a lot more money to do that.
Gallego currently has a 4:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Lake, and he is using that money to fill the airwaves with ads regarding Lake’s abortion stance. Lake’s campaign was in the red until she got that big haul in the first quarter, so she will need help from Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) leadership PAC and the RNC if she has any hope of taking out Gallego in this election.
