According to recent betting market trends, Kamala Harris has overtaken Joe Biden in the race for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
Fox Business reported that Vice President Kamala Harris is now favored to win the Democratic nomination over President Joe Biden.
The Vice President's lead in the PredictIt and PolyMarket betting platforms marks a significant turning point in the lead-up to the 2024 Presidential election. Currently, Harris holds a 44% chance on PredictIt and a 42% on PolyMarket, surpassing Biden’s numbers which have seen a downward trend following several political setbacks.
An unfortunate debate performance on June 27, where Biden faced off against Donald Trump, has contributed to this shift. This event triggered a negative reaction both publicly and politically, significantly affecting his previously leading position in the betting markets.
Since Biden's poor showing at this debate, his support has continuously declined, a fact that betting markets like Predict Fort and PolyMarkets have quickly reflected in their odds.
A market analyst, Timothy Williams, noted the dramatic shift in betting trends. Williams emphasized that the fast-tightening odds reflect a significant betting surgeon Harris and also an increase on Trump.
Timothy Williams stated:
If history holds true, we may be headed toward an election pitting Trump against Kamala Harris. Betting markets have proven themselves time and again to predict future outcomes.
Betting markets, which adjust odds based on public sentiment and events, captured a dip in sentiment for Biden, especially after new polls highlighted a community preference for Biden not to seek reelection.
Another market analyst, Lindsey Singer, commented on the volatility of the betting markets. Singer pointed out how quickly public reactions to political events are reflected in betting odds, offering a real-time barometer of political sentiment.
Within these events' timeline, the flurry of activities and swings in market predictions are noteworthy, particularly between July 10 and July 12. The market's reaction was not only to the debate but also to subsequent shifts in endorsements and public opinions, culminating in a dramatic couple of days.
Lindsey Singer elaborated:
This is a really interesting time in the PredictIt market for the Democratic nominee — take your eye off it for an hour and there might be a new front-runner. But that’s one of the great things about the PredictIt farming — it tracks public reactions to events in real time, no need to wait for polling results.
Despite Biden’s adamant stance to stay in the race and endorsements from notable figures like actor George Clooney, who expressed in a July 11 op-ed that Biden should "pass the baton," public and political confidence may be waning.
Significantly, Donald Trump continues to exhibit strong betting odds, holding a 69.23% implied probability of winning the election on BetUS.com, vastly surpassing any Democrat contender. As the 2024 election approaches, these shifts in candidate favorability reflect broader dynamics at play, including public sentiment, political endorsements, and the pivotal influence of high-stakes debates.
