A recent poll by Navigator Research indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling in several key swing states, where she trails or is at best tied with former President Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted from July 31 to August 8, shows her not leading in any of the critical battleground states. As reported by Newsweek, the poll examined voter preferences in five states: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states played a pivotal role in the 2020 presidential election, with Joe Biden securing victories in all except North Carolina. However, the current landscape appears to be shifting, presenting challenges for the Democratic nominee.
The polls in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin show that Harris and Trump are locked in a dead heat. When third-party candidates are included in the equation, Harris and Trump are tied at 44 percent in Michigan, 46 percent in North Carolina, and 45 percent in Wisconsin. These results underscore the highly competitive nature of the race in these states.
The razor-thin margins in these battlegrounds suggest that both campaigns will need to invest significant resources to sway undecided voters and solidify their base support. With such close numbers, every vote will be crucial in determining the outcome in these states. The Navigator Research poll surveyed 600 likely voters in each battleground state, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. This sample size provides a reliable snapshot of voter sentiment in these key electoral contests.
While the race remains tight in three states, Trump has managed to gain a slight advantage in two others. In Arizona, the former president leads Harris by a single percentage point, with 46 percent support compared to her 45 percent. The gap widens slightly in Pennsylvania, where Trump holds a two-point lead, with 46 percent support.
These narrow leads, though within the poll's margin of error, could be cause for concern for the Harris campaign. Both Arizona and Pennsylvania were crucial wins for Biden in 2020, and losing them could significantly impact the electoral map in 2024.
The poll's findings in these states align with the overall trend observed across the battleground states, where Trump and Harris are tied at 45 percent each when third-party candidates are factored in. The survey also notes that 7 percent of voters are supporting third-party candidates, while 3 percent remain undecided.
Navigator Research's poll reveals familiar demographic patterns in voter preferences. Harris continues to enjoy stronger support among women and Black and Hispanic voters. In contrast, Trump maintains an edge with men and white voters. These trends are consistent with previous election cycles and other recent polls.
As recent polling data shows, the struggle to win over independent voters increasingly favors Trump. Harris lags behind Trump by 5 points among independents overall, with 38 percent to his 43 percent. The gap widens among independent men, where Trump holds a significant lead of 50 percent compared to Harris's 31 percent. However, among independent women, both candidates are evenly matched at 39 percent.
The Vice President's favorability ratings among independents also lag behind Trump's. The poll shows that 39 percent of independent voters view Harris favorably, compared to 46 percent for Trump. More concerning for the Harris campaign is that 59 percent of independents view her unfavorably, while 53 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump.
Despite facing difficulties in key battleground states, Harris has consistently held a narrow lead over Trump in national polls since her campaign began in July. The situation in crucial swing states is still volatile, with mixed polling results. For example, while recent polls by Redfield & Wilton Strategies show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker offers a mixed picture, with Harris leading in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan, while Trump maintains an advantage in North Carolina. Notably, the Vice President has made gains in all swing states compared to June when President Biden was still in the race.
As the 2024 election approaches, these battleground states will undoubtedly remain the focus of intense campaigning and scrutiny. With margins this close, the Harris and Trump campaigns will need to fine-tune their strategies to win over undecided voters and energize their bases in these crucial states. The outcome of the election may well hinge on the results in these tightly contested battlegrounds.
