Donald Trump has been struggling in the polls since Joe Biden dropped out and Kamala Harris took over as the Democrat nominee.
Harris plans to capitalize on that momentum by conducting a massive ad blitz shortly after the conclusion of the Democrat National Convention.
Talking Points…
- Trump struggling
- Harris wants to keep the momentum going
- Analysis
Since the changeover, Trump has continued to struggle against Harris, not really landing any good shots against her to stop the momentum Harris gained after replacing Biden. She still holds a 2.7% advantage in the national average of polls. However, Trump has tightened things up in the most recent YouGov-CBC News poll, now only trailing Harris by two points.
In battleground states, Trump is winning Florida (4.5%), Georgia (1.5%), Ohio (10.0%), and Virginia (4.0%). Harris is currently winning Arizona (1.1%), Michigan (3.2%), Nevada (0.1%), Pennsylvania (1.5%), and Wisconsin (3.3%). Most of those are national averages, so it is worth noting that in several states where Harris has a lead, Trump is trending back, whereas that is not the case for Harris in the states where Trump leads.
Not only is Trump struggling in polls, but he is also struggling with how to attack Harris, which is stunning since he predicted Biden would drop out after the debate. Going in, you would have had to think his team would have Plan B ready in case Biden dropped out, but that does not appear to be the case. Thus far, Trump's strategy against Harris has been to whine about the size of her rallies and attack her personally, which will not work during this election cycle. If anything, it will hurt Trump.
To that point, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is now begging Trump to move away from whining and personal attacks and go after nothing but policy. Leave the mudslinging to the surrogates and keep pushing the policy. To that point, Graham stated:
"If you have a policy debate for president, he wins.
"Donald Trump the provocateur, the showman, may not win this election."
Many in the GOP have echoed that sentiment, including former presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who offered advice identical to Graham's. In addition, Graham had extended an invitation to Haley to campaign with him for Trump, but she has yet to accept or decline that invitation.
As Donald Trump struggles with his approach on how to go after Harris, Harris is going full bore ahead with her attacks against Trump and Vance. Her campaign has announced a massive $370 million ad buy that will hit right after the holiday weekend is over and people start to really think about the election.
This weekend, her campaign announced that it would be taking out a $170 million ad spend on TV in critical swing states that would begin on September 3. Harris will also be spending another $200 million on streaming outlets, including Roku, Hulu, and YouTube. With the summer vacation season over and college and pro football about to begin, the idea is to get people just as they turn into couch potatoes again.
Donald Trump had started to catch up to Joe Biden in terms of cash on hand, but relatively speaking, his campaign is still cash-poor. That is especially true since Harris entered the race, where a lot of the money that was sitting on the sidelines fell right into her lap. Harris raised staggering amounts of money during her first week, and that faucet remains on.
While Harris is spending nearly $400 million, the Trump campaign has announced a small ad blitz during the DNC to try to quell the expected surge, but after the holiday, Trump's campaign has only purchased ad space in Pennsylvania and Georgia. I am still awaiting the reports for current cash-on-hand totals after these spend, but if the numbers are what I think they will be, Trump is going to have to do some serious fundraising to keep up with Harris, or he could find himself in dire straits down the stretch of this election cycle.
