Rep. Jim Jordan is raising money, mending fences, and lining up support for a run at the House speakership, even as he publicly insists he is focused only on keeping the Republican majority intact. More than two dozen lawmakers, congressional aides, outside advisors, and lobbyists told NOTUS in a report published Monday that they see clear signs the Ohio Republican is preparing to make his move if the GOP loses control of the chamber in November.
Jordan himself denied it. Asked whether he was eyeing a leadership race in the event Republicans fall into the minority, the Judiciary Committee chairman said he was "focused on helping our team keep the majority" and was "not at all" looking ahead to a post-election contest.
The denials have not convinced his colleagues. The NOTUS report describes a congressman who has spent months donating large sums of campaign cash to incumbents, courting moderates and establishment members who blocked his path two years ago, and positioning himself as a more cooperative partner than the combative Freedom Caucus fighter many remember from the Obama and Trump years.
Jordan's maneuvering carries extra weight because he has tried this before, and failed. After Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy in 2023, Jordan mounted a bid to replace him but could not garner a majority. Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana ultimately won the gavel instead.
That bruising episode appears to have changed Jordan's approach. One senior Republican lawmaker who opposed Jordan in 2023 told NOTUS the congressman had overhauled his style:
"Jim completely changed his tack. He knew that for any chance for him to ascend to a top leadership role, or any leadership role for that matter, he was going to have to shed the wrestler Jim and become a little bit more congenial, workable, friendly, and civil."
The "wrestler Jim" label is a reference to Jordan's years as an assistant wrestling coach at Ohio State University, a chapter that brought its own baggage. The New York Times reported in 2021 that at least 177 sexual abuse cases involved Dr. Richard Strauss, a team physician at the university. Jordan has spent years trying to overcome questions about what he knew during his time there.
Johnson's tenure as speaker has been defined by the narrowest of margins. Mounting attendance problems and internal rebellions have tested his ability to govern the conference on even routine matters.
Jordan's charm offensive has not gone unnoticed among the members he once largely ignored. One self-described moderate told NOTUS that the Ohioan had expanded his coalition in ways that would have been hard to imagine a few years ago:
"He's done a really good job kind of broadening his base of support. He's gone out of his way to help people and build relationships."
But the pivot has a cost. A Freedom Caucus member told NOTUS that Jordan's positioning is generating friction on the right flank that once formed his natural base: "Some of his angling is frustrating to some on the right."
That tension captures the central dilemma of any Republican leadership bid. Jordan built his national profile as a bare-knuckle investigator, using the Judiciary Committee to press the case against Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign and, later, to defend Donald Trump during impeachment proceedings. One ally explained that Jordan's reluctance to help certain colleagues during those years was a matter of focus, not indifference, noting Jordan was consumed with protecting Trump.
Jordan himself apparently acknowledged the gap in a remark to colleagues. He told fellow members, "It wasn't my job to help you then", a blunt admission that his priorities had been elsewhere and that the relationship-building he is doing now represents a deliberate course correction.
The internal divisions that could shape a leadership race have been visible on other fronts, too. House Republicans have split on major votes in recent months, exposing fault lines between the conference's populist and institutionalist wings.
If Jordan does run, the path will not be clear. NOTUS reported that he would likely face off against Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who carries his own deep relationships within the conference and nearly won the speakership himself in 2023 before stepping aside.
The broader political backdrop makes the stakes higher. NOTUS described an expectation among Republicans that the House is unlikely to remain in GOP hands after November. Some in the conference believe the Senate could flip as well, which would leave the minority leader post as the most powerful position available to a Republican in Congress.
Johnson, for his part, has faced a string of legislative confrontations that have tested his hold on the conference. Recent fights over government spending and DHS funding exposed how little room the speaker has to maneuver when even a handful of members break ranks.
Jordan's public posture, deny, deny, deny, is standard operating procedure for anyone laying groundwork for a leadership campaign. No serious contender announces before the election. But two dozen sources painting the same picture is not speculation. It is a signal.
The question is whether the conference wants the new Jim Jordan or remembers the old one. Moderates who blocked him in 2023 are hearing him out now. Freedom Caucus members who once saw him as their champion are watching him drift toward the center of the conference with visible unease.
Pressure from within has become a recurring feature of Johnson's speakership. Members like Rep. Lauren Boebert have drawn lines on spending priorities that squeezed his already thin margin, making every floor vote an exercise in vote-counting arithmetic.
Several details remain unclear. NOTUS did not identify the specific lawmakers, aides, or lobbyists among the more than two dozen sources who described Jordan's preparations. No dollar figures were attached to the "large sums" of campaign cash Jordan has reportedly distributed. And the mechanics of a minority-party leadership election, which would carry far less institutional power than the speakership, were not spelled out.
What is clear is that Jordan is not sitting still. He is doing the work that candidates do: raising money, building goodwill, softening old grudges, and keeping his name at the top of every list. Whether that translates into votes when the moment arrives depends on whether his colleagues believe the transformation is real, or just another tactic from a man who has spent his career knowing exactly when to fight and when to wait.
Johnson's own leadership decisions, including controversial calls on Capitol protocol, have kept him in the spotlight for reasons that do not always help his standing with the full conference.
Washington rewards those who prepare while everyone else is still arguing about what went wrong. If Republicans do lose the House, the scramble for leadership will be fast and unforgiving. Jim Jordan clearly intends to be ready. Whether the conference is ready for him is another matter entirely.
