Former President Donald Trump has named Senator JD Vance from Ohio as his choice for Vice President in the upcoming election.
Fox News reported that Senator JD Vance emerges as the first vice-presidential nominee with a negative post-convention favorability rating since records began in 1980.
JD Vance, upon securing the vice-presidential nomination, faced a historical decline in his popularity according to data from CNN. Specifically, Vance recorded a net negative favorability score following the Republican National Convention, marking a first in modern political history.
CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten provided details on this unprecedented situation. "I have gone back since 1980. He is the first guy after, immediately following a convention, a VP pick, who had a net negative favorability rating that is underwater," said Enten. This contrasts sharply with the historical data where the average net favorability rating for VP nominees since 2000 has hovered around +19 points.
In explaining the significance of these findings, Enten remarked, "JD Vance, making history in the completely wrong things." Such commentary underscores the challenging start to Vance's vice-presidential campaign, especially in contrast to his predecessors.
JD Vance's path to becoming a vice-presidential nominee has been fraught with complexities, particularly regarding his relationship with Donald Trump. Initially a critic during Trump's 2016 campaign, where Vance labeled the former president as "cultural heroin," his stance significantly changed over time. By May 2024, Vance openly admitted to reevaluating his views on Trump.
I was wrong about him. I didn't think he was going to be a good president. And I was very, very proud to be proven wrong. It's one of the reasons why I'm working so hard to get him elected.
Donald Trump, reflecting on their evolving relationship, commented on their synergy. "Originally, JD was probably not for me, but he didn't know me. And then when we got to know each other, he liked me maybe more than anybody liked me." This turnaround in perception illustrates Vance's transformative journey in the political sphere, aligning more closely with Trump over time, culminating in his current role as a running mate.
Vance's selection could potentially strengthen Trump's campaign, especially targeting working-class Democrats in the Rust Belt. However, this strategy remains controversial. Enten questioned Vance's effectiveness in appealing to this critical voter segment, despite the potential strategic advantage.
It is essential to consider Vance's recent electoral performance. In 2022, Vance secured his Ohio Senate seat by a modest 6-point margin. This figure stands in contrast to Trump's 8-point and Republican Governor Mike DeWine's 25-point victories in Ohio, underscoring varied electoral dynamics within the state.
By selecting Vance, Trump likely aims to replicate his past success in Ohio—a state crucial for his 2020 victory. Yet, Vance's current favorability ratings suggest a complicated path ahead in galvanizing the broader Republican base, let alone swing voters.
With the 2024 election on the horizon, the political dynamics signaled by Vance's nomination highlight the unpredictable nature of this electoral cycle. His unique position as a vice-presidential candidate with a negative initial favorability score sets a distinctive backdrop for the forthcoming campaign.
In conclusion, the selection of JD Vance as the vice-presidential nominee offers a mix of strategic intent and potential risk for the Trump campaign. Whether this decision will help consolidate the necessary electoral support remains to be seen, as highlighted by his unprecedented negative post-convention favorability ratings and the varying reception among potential voters.
