Joe Biden has been struggling in polling since the outset of this campaign.
That just changed, however, with a key demographic with a 14-point flip in Biden’s favor.
Talking Points…
- Independent voter swing
- Battleground polling
- Analysis
Biden has been losing minority and Gen Z voters, making the outlook for the 2024 election quite grim. Trump has been dominating independent voters as well, leading Biden in this demographic by 12 points in recent surveys, but that just changed.
In the latest NPR/PBS News/ Marist poll, Joe Biden has been thrown a lifeline, going from a 12-point deficit to a 50-48 lead over Trump with independent voters. While the guilty verdict did not hurt Trump among Republican voters, it would appear that Independent voters took it to heart and are moving over to Biden.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's lead in national polling right now, including third-party candidates, has shrunk to a mere 0.5%. Kennedy has dipped down to 9.3%, so the shine has apparently worn off his campaign. But this is not good news for Trump, who is now in a virtual tie against a candidate who cannot even figure out how to walk off a stage these days.
We all know that national polling is not relevant in a presidential election because of the Electoral College, but this election, more than ever, Trump also needs to win the popular vote to silence his critics. Unfortunately, the way things are going right now, that may not happen, so let’s take a closer look at the key battleground states that will decide this election.
Texas and Florida are solidly in Trump’s favor right now. For Biden, California and New York are both double-digit leads for Biden, so both candidates will get their hauls from those respective states. Barring a major upset, this will come down to Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Trump had been dominating in Arizona, but that lead has just about disappeared. The latest poll sponsored by The Telegraph shows only a two-point lead for Trump and an average poll lead of only four points. Georgia has also tightened up considerably, with Trump’s lead now sitting at five points in the latest The Telegraph poll and a national average lead of only 4.9 points.
Michigan is a big prize right now because it is part of the Blue Wall and a state that Biden will desperately need if he is going to beat Trump. Trump and Biden are now in a virtual tie in that state, so this is still clearly up for grabs. Trump continues to perform well in Nevada, but his lead is down to 4.9 points.
This brings us to two states that could decide this election: New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Biden is expected to take New Jersey, but Trump has made some serious inroads here and now only trails Biden by about five points. No polling has taken place since the guilty verdict, so we will have to watch that. Trump is now leading Biden in Pennsylvania by two points, and if Biden loses PA, it is more than likely lights out for his campaign.
Joe Biden is also leading Trump in Virginia right now, but that lead is only one point in the latest Fox News poll. This state is a coin flip right now, but it is yet another state that if Trump wins, he could crush Biden’s hopes and turn this into a landslide win. In Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are now tied, but this is a state that Trump desperately needs if he wants to win. If he loses Wisconsin, he must flip PA or NJ to have a shot here.
I have stated from the outset that polling suggested Trump would take a big hit if he were found guilty. In terms of Republican support, it barely registered. Still, it clearly resonated with all those Independent voters who were undecided, as it appears most of them have now moved over to Joe Biden. So, in essence, we are now back to a coin-flip race, which is astonishing when you consider the mental state of Joe Biden.
Whatever you do, please do not dismiss this report as anti-Trump or fearmongering because I assure you, that is not the case. This report should serve as a wake-up call to the entire conservative base that they better not get cocky and think that just because Biden is mentally unfit, the American people will not vote him in as president. This race should be a blowout, yet Trump is now in a virtual tie. It will be devastating if Biden pulls this off and will call for a complete reshaping of the Republican Party moving forward.
