A new ABC News/Ipsos poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained her advantages over former President Donald Trump in personal attributes and campaign performance despite not receiving a significant bounce from the Democratic National Convention.
According to the ABC News poll, the race remains close, but Harris has widened her lead among women voters, creating a more substantial gender gap in the 2024 presidential race.
The poll, conducted from August 23-27, 2024, shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump among all adults and registered voters (50%-46%) and a more substantial lead among likely voters (52%-46%). While the overall numbers remain largely unchanged from pre-convention polls, the gender gap has expanded, with Harris now leading by 13 points among women (54%-41%), while Trump holds a 5-point advantage among men (51%-46%).
The poll indicates that Harris' campaign is viewed more favorably by the public than Trump's. Fifty-six percent of Americans rate Harris' campaign as excellent or good, compared to only 41% for Trump. This perception extends across party lines, with 93% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and even 24% of Republicans rating Harris's campaign positively.
In contrast, Trump's campaign receives lower ratings across all groups, with 79% of Republicans, 38% of independents, and 13% of Democrats viewing it positively. This disparity in campaign perception could be a significant factor as the race enters its final two months. Harris also leads in voter satisfaction with the matchup, with her supporters being 14 percent more likely than Trump to be satisfied with the candidates. Additionally, the public expects Harris to win the upcoming ABC News presidential debate on September 10 by a 6-point margin (43%-37%).
The poll reveals significant shifts in demographic support since the Democratic convention. White women have moved from a 13-point advantage for Trump pre-convention to a virtual tie now, while Trump's lead among white men has expanded from 13 points to 21 points.
Despite Harris's advantages in personal attributes and campaign perception, Trump continues to lead on several key issues. He maintains an 8-point lead on trust to handle the economy and inflation and a 9-point lead on immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border. These issues could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates, which conducted the poll for ABC News, stated, "Results show Harris' competitiveness as a walk-on candidate." This assessment highlights Harris's strong performance despite being a relatively new entrant to the presidential race.
Harris maintains her lead over Trump in several personal attributes, including favorability (46% vs. 33%), qualification for office (53% vs. 47%), and physical health for the job (57% vs. 25%). She also leads in categories such as honesty, trustworthiness, and mental acuity.
The poll also indicates a high level of voter intensity, particularly among Harris supporters. Seventy-five percent of Harris supporters say it would be "a crisis" if Trump were elected, compared to 67% of Trump supporters who view a Harris win as a crisis. This intensity could potentially drive higher turnout for Harris.
While Harris leads in many areas, the race remains close, and both candidates face challenges. Trump's strength on economic issues and immigration could be crucial, especially if these topics dominate the campaign. Meanwhile, Harris's broader appeal across personal attributes and her stronger performance among independents could help her consolidate support.
The poll also reveals a significant level of dissatisfaction with both candidates, with 53% of the public expressing dissatisfaction with the Harris-Trump contest. This dissatisfaction is reflected in the number of voters who don't trust either candidate on various issues or don't attribute positive personal qualities to either of them.
In conclusion, the ABC News/Ipsos poll shows a tight race between Harris and Trump, with Harris maintaining advantages in personal attributes and campaign perception. The widening gender gap and shifts in demographic support since the Democratic convention could play a crucial role in the election outcome. While Trump leads on key issues like the economy and immigration, Harris's broader appeal and stronger support among independents present opportunities for her campaign. As the race enters its final phase, both candidates will need to address voter dissatisfaction and focus on winning over undecided voters in key demographic groups.
