Speaker Johnson (R-LA) has a major problem: His majority is shrinking by the day.
With Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) hoping to expel another GOP member, the actions of the GOP itself could have the majority switch to Democrats before we get to the election.
Talking Points…
- The GOP House advantage
- MTG on a mission
- Analysis
Currently, there are 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats in the House. This gives the GOP a two-vote advantage in any partisan legislation that is passed. That advantage will be reduced to one vote when Rep. Gallagher (R-WI) leaves in April.
Four vacancies will have to be filled via special election, with the GOP likely to do no worse than a split in those elections. However, considerable grumblings still exist between the establishment and MAGA candidates, who are not getting along very well. This could lead to more early resignations that could put the majority at risk in the middle of the congressional session.
The GOP is also facing numerous seats where the incumbent has announced that he or she will retire at the term's end. It costs more to defend the seat because the RNC and House PACs will be expected to help first-time congressional fundraisers who are going after these seats. Even if the GOP manages to hold the House advantage, they are no better than 50-50 to keep the House in 2024.
Rep. Greene has already made a motion to vacate against Speaker Johnson, but we are not so sure that motion will work this time. Johnson has been willing to work with Democrats, to the point of caving on the $1.2 trillion spending bill that was just forced through the House with more Democrat support than Republicans.
Even so, I am not sure the caucus as a whole will vote to remove him with MTG's motion simply because they do not want to give the appearance of dysfunction to voters this close to the election. On the possible removal of Johnson, Greene stated:
"This is like issuing a pink slip and giving our conference a notice. This may take weeks. This may take months. But Speaker Johnson cannot remain as speaker of the House."
Greene also recently stated that she would like to expel Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who recently announced that he will be leaving office on April 19, cutting down the GOP advantage in the House to almost nothing. So, Greene wants to expel him before he retires, stating:
"I think he should be expelled preeminently before he's allowed to just walk out of Congress at a date of his choosing, where his district doesn't get to replace him until next Congress.
"I think that is completely wrong. I think people should be able to have a voice. His district deserves a voice in Congress and we should expel him and that way his district can replace him as quickly as possible with a special election."
I think it goes without saying that this is not a good look for the GOP in terms of acting responsibly. Greene seems to now be taking the stance that any Speaker who goes against anything the Freedom Caucus wants will be removed, but the Freedom Caucus had its members blocked from becoming Speaker.
This is complete and utter chaos, but should they remove Johnson now? Absolutely not, solely because it will turn voters against House Republicans in the election. Like it or not, Greene needs to back off and allow Johnson to finish out this term as Speaker. Then they need to come up with someone else to become Speaker in the next session who can finally get all members of the House on the same page because that is clearly not Johnson.
The GOP House caucus is fractured right now, with three different factions going after each other. We have MAGA, the establishment, and moderates all fighting for power, and nobody is willing to give an inch. As long as this continues, the majority is at risk. And if the GOP turns over the House to Democrats, it does not matter if Trump wins the election because every piece of legislation he wants to pass will be blocked in Congress.
