Many of us have feared this moment… what happens once Trump is confirmed as the nominee?
Trump has been leading in polling since the beginning, but how will voters react now that the first guilty verdict has been announced?
Talking Points…
- New Fox News poll wake-up call for Republicans
- Current polling situation for Trump
- Analysis
It honestly looked like Trump's guilty verdict would have little effect on the race. The staggering amount of money that Trump was able to raise after the verdict initially made me think that the outcome would have little to no impact. To an extent, I was right, but that was only with Republican voters who had already decided they were voting for Trump no matter what.
If you read my reports regularly, you know I constantly referred to polling that showed a big move against Trump, possibly as much as 30%, if he was convicted. I also noted how many undecided voters there were in those polls, even suggesting that they were waiting on the trial's outcome, which was particularly large among independent voters. It now looks as though my early predictions were eerily on point.
In the first NPR/PBS News/Marist poll taken post-verdict, Biden moved from trailing Trump 42% to 54% among independent voters to taking the lead at 50% to 48%. That is a 14-point swing in Biden's favor, a huge number. If you think that is just an outlier poll, wait until you see what happened in the last Fox News poll.
In the latest Fox News poll, we went from Trump leading 50-45 in March, to Trump leading 49-48 in May, to Joe Biden now leading 50-48. Biden also won a poll that accounted for third-party candidates, 43-42. One of the most significant swings for Biden was due to a rise in his economy approval ratings, as some people are clearly starting to buy into the media and Democrat narrative that everything is just fine, even though our bank accounts are telling us all a different story. It is just flat-out bizarre, but we all knew the media would make a big push for Biden during this stretch drive.
We have seen movement now in just about every national and battleground state poll out there since the trial, and the news is not good for Trump. The only question is whether it will last or if people will eventually come back to reality and realize how bad of a job Joe Biden is doing as president. The trend is going the wrong way for Trump, who, as of May 30, had a 1.7% lead in national averages, but now that lead is down to a mere 0.1%. Also, five of the last six polls have Biden in front, with the only exception being the latest YouGov poll, which has them both even.
For argument's sake, let's assume that Trump takes Texas and Florida and that Biden takes California and New York. Both have big leads in those respective states, so this will likely come down to a handful of battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Trump is leading in Arizona, but that lead is now down to only 3.7%. Trump is leading in Georgia, but the lead is now down to 4.6%. After Trump led in Michigan by as much as 5.1%, Biden is now leading by 0.3%. Biden is currently leading in New Jersey by 5%. Trump is and has been holding steady in Ohio by 9.3%. In Pennsylvania, Trump once led by 4.1%, but that lead is now down to 0.8%. Trump is trending in the right direction in Virginia, at one point trailing Biden by 5%, now only down 1%. Trump is now losing Wisconsin by 0.2% after once having a lead of 3.1%.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson, explained:
"The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place.
"Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans."
In a matter of days, we have gone from this being Trump's race to lose to Trump holding on for dear life. To make matters more complicated for Trump, the hush-money gag order remains in place with an upcoming debate against Joe Biden, where Biden and moderators can lob bombs at Trump, and he has to sit there and take it or risk going to jail.
Trump has literally done nothing to woo Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley voters, believing they will all eventually fall in line behind him, but he better start working for their votes and make nice. I know there will be a lot of people reading this calling it fake news or calling me a RINO trying to sabotage Trump, but this is quite the opposite. I am trying to give everyone a wake-up call, both Trump and his surrogates, as well as conservatives in general. This race is now a coin flip, and the trends benefit Joe Biden.
Now, all that could change, as we have seen in the past, but as of today, the GOP better get out there and woo voters and take advantage of Biden bleeding Gen Z and minority voters. They are going to have to work to get those votes. Most of those disgruntled voters are not voting for Biden, but they are not yet ready to pull the handle for Trump. Win them over, and you win this election.
