With the presidential election field now set, polling is getting more dialed in.
Shockingly, we are finding out that some of the messaging from the Biden camp is starting to settle in, giving Joe Biden his highest approval rating in more than a year, which has to be shocking to the Trump campaign.
Talking Points…
- 2-way and 5-way polling
- The issues
- Analysis
Contrary to the narrative that Donald Trump has been pitching, he has never had a massive national lead against Joe Biden in polling. For the most part, save a couple of outlier polls, these two have been inside five points of each other virtually the entire race, usually within the margin of error, which means nobody has really had an actual lead in this race.
In virtually every recent poll, these two are tied, or there is a margin of no more than three points, and the Fox News Poll had much the same, with Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 49-48%. Donald Trump is also beating Joe Biden in every battleground state right now, with Wisconsin flipping back and forth regularly. But again, the leads are very slim and could flip at the drop of a hat.
In 5-way polling that includes all the third-party candidates, Donald Trump’s lead increases to three points, which is significant because we expect this to be a five-way race. Kennedy is polling at 11% in the Fox News poll, but again, this is more about how he is polling in battleground states because right now, Kennedy is pulling about 1% more from Biden than he is from Trump, but Jill Stein and Cornel West are taking about 6% from Biden, hence the gap in the two different polls.
Biden is hurting in support among minorities, but his campaign has been making a significant effort on this front, and so far, it is paying off. Biden was polling at 79% before the 2020 election, but he was down at 66% among black voters in February. That number is now up to 72% among black voters, but that is still a considerable gap, which is why I continue to push for Trump to pick Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.) as his VP. Picking Scott would be a substantial nod to minority communities and give them a real presence in the GOP.
So, how is this race so tight when Biden’s economy and immigration policies are failing so badly? Well, Biden’s economic message is starting to hit home. He is still way behind Trump on this, currently trailing 55-42%, but that number is better than it has been in some time. Where Biden is really making headway against Trump is Election Integrity, Health Care, and Abortion. Besides the economy, Trump is also leading Biden significantly on Immigration, Crime, and Foreign Policy. The two of them are dead, even with regard to energy policies.
I believe this election will come down to four categories: Abortion, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Immigration.
Abortion is always top-of-mind for Democrats come election day, and it always will be. Election season is the only time we see where it becomes okay to justify the killing of an unborn child. Still, Democrats have been utterly masterful in turning elections around on this one key issue. Republicans need to figure this out and do it quickly, or it will cost them again in 2024.
While Donald Trump is dominating Biden on the economy, Biden’s numbers are way up from the 17% that we had seen in previous surveys. Trump can no longer win this election on the economy alone, so he will have to push foreign policy and immigration with voters.
Trump continues to say that the Russian-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war would never have happened if he was in office, and if he does get into office, he will have them over immediately, but that is just not realistic. Trump needs to keep a confident narrative on this front, but making an unrealistic promise that can be called out on Day Two of the administration is just not wise, as the American people can see through that bravado.
Immigration is where Trump can really hurt Biden, which is why Biden is now starting to take measures to address the problems at the border. If Trump’s team is smart, the moment Biden puts in a new enforcement policy, the question needs to be immediately presented as to why this did not take place sooner. The answer is obvious… because the election is now here. The implication is that after the election, Biden will return to open-border policies.
I learned my lesson in 2020 and 2022 regarding GOP predictions of a red wave and a red tsunami. I no longer drink the Kool-Aid, so to speak, but do my own deep dive into the numbers to break down a possible election outcome. I can tell you for a fact that while Trump could ultimately have a landslide electoral victory, he will not win any battleground state in a landslide. The point is that this election is going to be a nail-biter that will be decided by the narrowest of margins in terms of the popular vote in these states.
The worst thing conservatives can do at this point is to get cocky and think this election is in the bag because of Joe Biden’s economy and apparent mental health issues. There are just too many people out there who despise Trump, and regardless of his policies, they will never pull the handle for him. There is also the challenge of Trump surrogates alienating DeSantis and Haley supporters, which will hurt Trump in this general election. We have about six months to go before voters head to the polling stations, and Trump needs to keep his foot on the gas the entire way, or he could give Biden the opening he needs to squeak out a win.
