A new poll conducted by the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab reveals a significant shift in female voter preferences in Florida, potentially impacting the 2024 presidential race.
According to the survey, Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a 10-point lead over former President Donald Trump among women voters in his home state.
The poll, released by Newsweek, shows 53 percent of Florida women supporting Harris, compared to 43 percent backing Trump. Dr. Kevin Wagner, co-executive director of FAU's PolCom Lab, attributes Harris's boost to the unification of the traditional Democratic coalition. This coalition typically exhibits a gender gap, with women more likely to vote Democratic and men leaning Republican. The survey results indicate a change from April, when 48 percent of Florida women supported President Joe Biden.
The gender gap, while not as pronounced in Florida as in other states, is becoming increasingly evident. Wagner suggests that women voters are viewing Harris more favorably than they did Biden. This shift could have significant implications for the upcoming election, as both Harris and Trump vie for the crucial suburban woman voting bloc.
In the 2020 election, this demographic played a pivotal role in Biden's victory, with about 55 percent of suburban women supporting the Democrat, compared to 43 percent for Trump. This marked a change from 2016, when suburban women were more evenly split between the two parties.
Political strategist Jay Townsend believes the new FAU PolCom Lab survey indicates that Trump faces a "very serious" problem with well-educated suburban women. He suggests the Trump campaign should carefully examine how this trend might affect the former president in key swing states.
The poll results have raised concerns within Republican circles. Alex Patton, a Republican strategist, notes that Harris's boost among Florida women demonstrates the momentum her campaign has maintained since Biden endorsed her as the Democratic nominee three weeks ago.
Patton warned that if the Trump campaign is forced to spend resources in Florida, a state previously considered solidly Republican, it could indicate significant problems for the GOP. He stated:
If you see the Trump campaign being forced to spend resources in what was considered a solid red Florida that would indicate a massive concern and an expanding electoral map. The larger concern is does Trump become a drag on down-ballot races such as the U.S. Senate race in Florida.
An upcoming abortion amendment on the Florida ballot could further influence the election outcome. In November, voters will decide on a measure ensuring that no law shall prohibit abortion before viability. The FAU PolCom Lab poll found that 59 percent of women support the amendment, compared to 54 percent of men.
Democrats hope this amendment will drive voter turnout in their favor. Wagner explained that while Florida has become more conservative over time, the degree of the gender gap could be crucial in determining the election results.
He stated, "It's a question of degrees. How big is that gap? The Harris campaign would like to maximize it so that it looks a little closer to the Obama years, and of course, Republicans would like to minimize it. So, the degree to which the gender gap is really driven is where the battle really is in this election."
The new poll from FAU's PolCom Lab reveals a significant shift in female voter preferences in Florida. Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a 10-point lead over former President Donald Trump among women voters in his home state. This change could have major implications for the 2024 presidential race.
The gender gap, particularly among suburban women, is emerging as a key factor. An upcoming abortion amendment on the Florida ballot may further influence voter turnout and preferences. As the election approaches, both campaigns will likely focus on strategies to either maximize or minimize this gender gap in the crucial swing state of Florida.
