A surprising shift has emerged among economic forecasters as they express newfound confidence in the U.S. economy under President Donald Trump.
In a January 2026 survey by The Wall Street Journal involving 82 economic forecasters, experts have significantly upgraded their outlook for the nation's financial future. Recession fears, which peaked at a 45% probability in April 2025 amid concerns over tariff policies, have dropped to 27%, aligning with post-pandemic averages. Forecasts now predict stronger GDP growth, with fourth-quarter 2025 estimates at 2.23% compared to 1.14% in October 2025, while first-quarter 2026 is projected at 2.13% against an earlier 1.47%.
Supporters of Trump’s agenda see this as a vindication of policies that prioritize American economic strength. The data suggests that tariff increases, tax cuts, and regulatory rollbacks—once feared as potential triggers for a downturn—may be laying the groundwork for sustained growth. It’s a sharp pivot from the gloom that clouded much of 2025.
Back in spring 2025, nearly half of the surveyed economists braced for a recession within a year. Now, with the probability down to a manageable 27%, the mood has shifted toward cautious optimism. It’s as if the economic doomsday clock has been dialed back a few hours.
Job creation forecasts also paint a brighter picture, with average monthly payroll gains over the next four quarters expected to hit 64,535—a 31% jump from the 49,367 predicted in October 2025, Breitbart News reported. The unemployment rate, once projected at 4.68% during the April panic, is now anticipated to stabilize at 4.52% by June 2026. This suggests a labor market that can weather policy shifts without buckling.
While progressive voices might grumble about potential risks, these numbers undercut the narrative of inevitable economic collapse under Trump’s leadership. Policies once labeled as reckless now appear to be gaining traction without the feared fallout. It’s a pragmatic win for those who value results over rhetoric.
GDP projections further bolster the case for economic momentum in Trump’s second term. Full-year 2025 growth, measured on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, is now forecast at 2.35%, up from 1.92% in October 2024. Economists believe this strength could give Trump room to push his agenda without sparking a downturn.
Inflation concerns, often a sticking point for critics of bold fiscal moves, also seem to be easing. Consumer price inflation is projected at 2.80% by June 2026, down from 3.03% in October forecasts, indicating growth can occur without prices spiraling out of control. It’s a delicate balance, but one that appears achievable.
Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted as well, with the federal funds rate now forecast at 3.08% by the end of 2026, lower than the 3.34% anticipated in April 2025. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to reach 4.15% by June 2026, reflecting less demand for safe-haven assets. These revisions signal a market that’s less jittery than it was months ago.
The turnaround in sentiment accelerated after Trump’s inauguration, as his policy vision became clearer. Economists who once fretted over job losses tied to his initiatives now see a path to solid, sustained growth. It’s a testament to the power of decisive leadership over hand-wringing uncertainty.
While no direct quotes from individuals are available in the survey data, the collective voice of these 82 forecasters speaks volumes through the numbers. The shift from pessimism to cautious hope isn’t just a statistic—it’s a rejection of the fear-mongering that dominated early 2025. The data itself is the loudest statement here.
Again, the absence of named sources in the report doesn’t diminish its weight; the consensus among experts is clear. The improved forecasts across growth, labor, and interest rates suggest a second term starting on a firm footing. It’s hard to argue with cold, hard figures.
For too long, critics have painted Trump’s economic policies as a gamble destined to fail. Yet, as these updated forecasts show, the U.S. economy is not only holding steady but poised for meaningful progress. Perhaps it’s time to rethink the knee-jerk opposition to measures that prioritize national interests.
This isn’t to say challenges won’t arise—tariffs and regulatory changes can still stir turbulence. But with recession fears waning and job growth projections climbing, the evidence leans toward resilience over ruin. The American worker, often overlooked in elite policy debates, stands to gain from this momentum.
Ultimately, this survey offers a refreshing counterpoint to the endless cycle of economic dread peddled by those who thrive on division. If these forecasts hold, Trump’s second year could redefine how we view bold economic strategies. Let’s hope the momentum carries forward without being derailed by overzealous critics or misguided interventions.
