This upcoming election is all about the swing states because we know that Joe Biden will carry all the blue states and Donald Trump will carry all the red ones.
This means that this election comes down to roughly six to eight states that are always on the bubble, and the bad news for Biden is that Trump is currently leading in virtually every key swing state.
Talking Points…
- Trump leading in key swing states
- Trump's election finance problems
- Analysis
Donald Trump is crushing Joe Biden in swing state voting right now, but the question is if he can hold that lead as we get closer to the general election. Trump has serious cash flow issues, but I will get more into that in a second.
For right now, Trump has a great base on which he can build in crucial swing states.
- Arizona 37-33
- Florida 48-42
- Georgia 45-40
- Michigan 43-41
- Nevada 41-36
- Ohio 51-40
- Pennsylvania 40-38
Those are the results of all the most recent polls in those states, and Trump is ahead in every single one of them right now. This is why Biden is hitting these states on his campaign tour, but the temperature after a Biden visit only seems to make things worse.
If the election were held today, I have little doubt that Trump would win this thing, but we still have almost eight months to go before people head to the voting booths, and Donald Trump is running out of money.
Last month, his major PAC’s number one expense was Donald Trump’s legal fees. In fact, other than his legal fees and salaries, the PAC spent very little money on anything else. Trump now has to come up with almost $500 million to satisfy the New York judgment by Monday, or Letitia James will start seizing his properties, and if that happens, they will be gone for good, and he forfeits his right to an appeal.
I have seen reports that Trump is now making a last-ditch effort to his supporters to help him pay this judgment so he does not lose his properties and can continue the appeals process, but that would all be money taken from campaign donations.
With Trump now folding the RNC into his campaign, the focus of fundraising has been to direct money to Trump’s campaign and PACs, likely for more money for his legal fees. Point being, there is not that much money being spent on campaigning, so it is a real worry that once the Biden campaign hits the trail hard, and they will be out there in force now that both Biden and Trump have been given the nod, can Trump hold these leads.
As of February 29, the Democratic Party has been significantly outraising the GOP. Biden has a $37.5 million advantage in his presidential campaign cash on hand. Republicans are trailing the DNC by $15.2 million. House Democrats have outraised House Republicans by $14 million, and Senate Democrats have outraised Republicans by $7.1 million.
Donald Trump is now in a position that his campaign will have to choose between ads and campaigning. The only bright spot for Trump on this front is that local candidates can invite him to speak at their rallies, footing the expenses, so it will not have to hit the Trump campaign.
Joe Biden’s campaign has been slamming Trump’s money issues as well as recently taking out a $30 million ad buy to hit Trump, which Trump cannot even counter with another ad attack of his own. So, we will have to wait a week or two for another round of polling to see how this impacts the race.
I don’t want to say Trump is in real trouble just yet because we know a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines after DeSantis left the race. But, as of yet, the big GOP donors siding with other candidates have not jumped in to back Trump, and he needs their support more than ever. The point is that Trump may be leading, but he and his supporters better not get too comfortable because, as we all know, eight months is an eternity in an election season.
