Democrats have been pouring millions of dollars into Texas in recent years to try to turn the state blue.
Once again, however, it would appear that Republicans hold a huge edge heading into the 2024 election.
Talking Points…
- Dems try to turn Texas blue
- Current polling
- Analysis
Texas has been a red state forever, but the last few years have seen a significant influx of liberals coming to the state via blue states like California and New York. Liberals now own cities like Houston and Austin, but when it comes to general election numbers, conservates show up in force, and the state has remained red.
That, however, has not stopped people like George Soros from pouring tens of millions of dollars into local campaigns to try to turn the state blue inch by inch. So far, the efforts have been for naught, as Republicans continue to own the state and federal legislative seats. While they have made progress, it is not nearly enough to turn the state, at least not yet.
If we go back to the 2000 election and move forward, Republicans won 59.3%, 61.1%, 55.5%, 57.2%, 52.2%, and 52.1% in the 2020 election. After that one big surge that Democrats made in the 2008 election, it has been fairly consistent, with only a few points gained through the 2020 election.
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been considered the most vulnerable candidate in recent elections, but Cruz continues to fight off Democrats in each election. Everyone thought the golden boy, Beto O'Rourke, would be able to take Cruz down in 2018, and he came close, but ultimately, Cruz won by more than 200,000 votes, beating O'Rourke 50.89 to 48.33%.
This time around, Cruz is more popular than he has been in recent elections. He is currently polling at 51% over his Democrat rival, State Rep. Colin Allred, who is polling at only 45%. There has also been some recent scuttlebutt about Allred in local publications, which will not help him beat Cruz in the general election.
For the presidential election, Donald Trump is crushing Joe Biden right now with a 55-44% advantage in the state. If this number holds true for Trump, it would be his most significant margin of victory in Texas, and it would take us back to 2008 and 2012 numbers in terms of dominating the race. And this is not just recent polling but the trend we have seen going back months, with Trump seemingly creating even more distance against Biden with every new poll (Trump was only leading 42-35 in a February poll).
So, where are all these extra voters coming from for Trump? That was explained in the latest Marist poll, as Trump is cleaning up on Independent voters who had previously voted for Joe Biden. The report stated:
"Independents, who Biden carried by 6 percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden."
Trump has also made up ground among younger voters, who are slowly moving away from Biden. These numbers also hold true in a 3-way race, which we are likely to have in this election. Kennedy gets about 15% support, leaving Biden at 36% and Trump at 48%, actually giving Trump an additional 1% in his overall lead against Biden.
So, it would now appear that the great experiment by Democrats of taking over Texas is just about dead, especially with the problems we are having at the border. For Texans, immigration is the number one issue that is top of mind, and now that they have seen what Democrats will do to the southern border, I would expect the trend of gaining red votes to continue, locking up the state of Texas for both Cruz and Trump in the 2024 election.
