I have often talked about the importance of putting the right candidate up in the primary race, not just someone that can dominate a primary race, if that makes sense.
A big primary win means nothing if you cannot win a general election, which the GOP suffered through over the last two elections. Now, Democrats have just done the same thing in Maryland.
Talking Points…
- Democrat Maryland primary race
- Shooting themselves in the foot
- Analysis
Former Republican Governor Larry Hogan is presenting a rather significant problem for Democrats in the Maryland Senate race. Democrats expect to win this seat, except Hogan's entry into the race put a big wrench in the system. Hogan is a true moderate, having no problem going against the GOP line to represent the will of the people of Maryland.
Looking at polling, Rep. David Trone (D-MD) was far better positioned to defeat Hogan than Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Trone has a bigger war chest and was ahead of Hogan in the most recent polls. In the Emerson College May 6-8 poll, Trone held an 11-point advantage over Hogan. Save one recent poll; Hogan has held the lead against Alsobrooks in the most recent Baltimore Banner poll as well as the Baltimore Sun poll.
Even so, voters decided on Alsobrooks, possibly shooting themselves in the foot with their nominee. There are already some rumblings in the party that this may have cost them a crucial seat in the Senate, where Democrats currently hold both seats. If Hogan pulls this off, it will give the GOP a huge boost in possibly taking back the Senate in the next term.
Maryland was not even on my radar as a possible seat to flip, but now it is. Dems have several other very vulnerable Senate seats, such as Senators Jon Tester (D-MT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Jacky Rosen (D-NV). Tester is currently down three points, Brown is ahead in his race, Casey is in a virtual tie, as is Rosen. With those numbers, you have to think that the GOP could come away with at least two of those seats, and if you add Maryland to the mix, this could be three seats that Democrats never expected to lose, clearly enough to turn the majority back over to Republicans.
Paul Ellington, a Republican strategist based in Maryland and former state GOP executive director, recently commented on the challenges this Maryland race now presents for Democrats. He stated:
"It poses a challenge for the Democrat Party nationally, because, you know, David Trone being the self-funder — as precarious as it is with West Virginia, you know, poised to flip — they have to hold serve, and, you know, in a state that heretofore was a given.
"I think the Democrat Party, although they wouldn't say at the national level, was hoping that the results would have been a little bit different."
Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, also touched on this, noting that Trone, who owns Total Wine, could have easily funded his own campaign without needing to tap DNC resources, but that will not be the case with Alsobrooks, who will now require help to fight off Hogan. Foxwell explained:
"While Alsobrooks will obviously have all the money she needs to match Larry Hogan dollar-for-dollar and then some, because control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance, [sic] that will come at a cost of money that otherwise could have gone to embattled Democrats in purple or red-leaning states."
Even if Hogan fails to win this seat, the fact that Alsobrooks is going to need so much help to compete with Hogan works in the GOP's favor. West Virginia appears to be a flip. With the Senate currently sitting at 51-49, with Dems benefitting from three independents who caucus with the Dems, the West Virginia seat flipping would make it 50-50.
Even if the Democrats successfully defend their other seats, if the GOP can win just one of the key races mentioned above, the GOP will have the majority. This will be key because it will be very hard for the GOP to hold the House with the chaos that has occurred for most of the last two years. This ensures that the GOP will not only be able to block House legislation but also control White House nominations if the Democrats win the White House. If Trump wins, it will help push through his nominees, possibly as many as three SCOTUS picks, and will allow Trump to once again push through a slew of judiciary appointments to balance the scales of justice in this country.
