Vice President Kamala Harris's rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has sparked renewed hope among Florida Democrats, who have not won a statewide race for the White House or Senate since 2012.
According to the Washington Examiner, the upcoming Senate race between Republican incumbent Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is a key focus for the party in the Sunshine State.
The Mucarsel-Powell campaign reports an increase in donations, volunteer signups, and text-bank shift participation since Harris became the presumptive nominee. However, despite this local enthusiasm, national Democratic leaders have yet to commit significant financial resources to Florida, a state that has increasingly leaned Republican in recent elections.
Florida Democratic delegates are preparing to make their case for increased national support at the upcoming convention. Joseph Geller, a former Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman and Florida DNC delegate, expressed the party's intention to emphasize Florida's potential as a battleground state and request additional funding and attention.
Recent polling data has bolstered Democratic optimism. While President Joe Biden faced a nearly double-digit deficit against former President Donald Trump, Harris has narrowed the gap to less than five points. A Florida Atlantic University poll showed Harris trailing Trump by just three points, with 47% support to Trump's 50%. The Harris campaign has also reported a surge of 22,000 volunteers in Florida, further energizing local party members and activists.
Despite the renewed Democratic enthusiasm, Republicans are not convinced that Florida's political landscape has significantly shifted. An unnamed national GOP strategist described the Democrats' current state as a "nice little sugar high," suggesting that the party's optimism may be short-lived.
Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pointed out that neither Senate Democrats nor the Senate Majority PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are currently investing in TV ads to challenge Scott's seat. This lack of national Democratic spending in Florida is seen by Republicans as an indication that the state may not be as competitive as Democrats hope.
Florida's recent electoral history presents a mixed picture for Democrats. While some races have been decided by narrow margins, others have resulted in significant Republican victories. In 2022, Senator Marco Rubio won reelection by a 16-point margin, and Governor Ron DeSantis secured a nearly 20-point victory. However, the 2018 elections were much closer, with Rick Scott winning his Senate seat by just 0.2% and DeSantis claiming the governorship by only 0.4%.
Current voter registration numbers present a challenge for Democrats. Republicans now boast a record-setting advantage of 1 million more registered voters than Democrats in Florida. The GOP has 5.3 million registered voters compared to the Democrats' 4.3 million, with an additional 3.5 million voters registered as having no party affiliation.
Several factors could impact the 2024 elections in Florida. The Mucarsel-Powell campaign and other Democrats are hopeful that a ballot measure to roll back Florida's 6-week abortion ban will drive voter turnout in their favor.
Financially, Scott maintains an overall cash advantage and has demonstrated a willingness to self-fund his campaigns, having invested over $60 million of his own money in 2018. As of the end of July, Scott had raised $30 million for this cycle and had $3.8 million in cash on hand.
Mucarsel-Powell, while trailing in total fundraising with $14.3 million raised and $4.3 million on hand, saw a significant boost in July, raising $2.2 million compared to Scott's less than $700,000. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried expressed concern about Republican tactics, stating, "Republicans have used every dirty trick in the book to suppress votes in Florida."
Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has energized Florida Democrats, who see potential for electoral gains in 2024. Recent polling shows a tightening race, and local campaigns report increased engagement. However, national Democratic organizations have yet to commit significant resources to the state. Republicans maintain a substantial voter registration advantage and view Democratic optimism as temporary. The upcoming elections will test whether Florida can reclaim its status as a swing state or if it will continue its recent trend of Republican dominance.
