As we all know, the moment that Harris was gifted the Democrat nomination, voters fell in love with her, and it looked like she would run away with the election.
Slightly less than three months later, that infatuation with her is gone, and this race has become a coin flip, and that is terrifying Democrat strategists.
Talking Points…
- Harris falls back dramatically in polling
- The ‘sugar high’ is over
- Analysis
On August 23, Harris enjoyed a 3.7% lead over Trump, and she was also leading in virtually every battleground state. Harris was up and down a few points over the next few weeks but was again sitting at +3.3% on September 18, so things were not looking very good for Trump at that point. That was it, however, as Harris has been sliding back, now down to a +2.5% in the national average, with most of the reputable polls showing her with a 2-point advantage in the most recent surveys.
This is a dangerous spot for Harris in terms of the overall election because while she would win the popular vote, at under 3%, she is only about 25% to win the Electoral College vote. The key for Harris in this race is to sweep the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and at this point, that appears to be unlikely. Going back to September 18, Harris was up 2.5%, 1.9%, and 2.7%, respectively, in the national average of polls in those states. Today, Harris sits at +0.8%, +0.6%, and +0.6%, respectively, but the most recent polling is all trending toward Trump in those states.
For the other key battleground states, on September 18, Harris was even in Arizona, -0.4% in Georgia, +1.1% in Nevada, and up 0.1% in North Carolina. Today, in those same states, she is -1.4%, -1.0%, +0.5%, and -0.9%, respectively. For Trump, the first key to beating Harris is to win North Carolina, a state that is always close but traditionally votes red. If Trump secures North Carolina, he then only needs to split Arizona and Nevada while winning Georgia and Michigan. If that scenario plays out, Trump wins the nomination. Obviously, other combinations can be worked out, but this seems very doable for Trump, especially since Trump is rallying in all three of the Blue Wall states.
This trend has Democrats terrified, and it should. If Trump wins in a landslide Electoral College vote, their little experiment will fail, and they will have significant eggs on their faces. And you had better believe that Joe Biden would be smirking and wondering why they removed him in the first place. This is exactly why Harris’ surrogates have been hammering her to get out there more to try to stop Trump’s momentum.
We are also seeing the media kick in and help. By and large, the media has ignored the Doug Emhoff scandal and is instead digging up dirt on Trump and other Republicans. Of course, there was also the Jack Smith scandal, but none of it is working. Trump’s base is unshakeable, so this has always been about the fence-sitters, and some of those who dove in early on Harris are now getting back out of the water and considering Trump again.
Democrat strategist James Carville, who despises Trump, has stated that he is “scared to death.” Former Harris Communications Director Jamal Simmons stated, “If you’re not nervous, you’re not paying attention.” Anthony Coley, a former Biden and Obama staffer turned political consultant, added:
"Now that the sugar high is gone, people have realized what Kamala Harris has said from the start, which is that she is the underdog.”
Former Obama adviser David Axelrod acknowledged that Harris had a great launch and rode that wave through the convention, but her campaign has peaked, and she is on the downswing now. Others have criticized Harris for still “fine tuning” her message when they need to be hammering their message. Carville has added that he thinks Harris is being “too passive” and needs to ramp up the aggression against Trump. Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac, added:
"The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt."
You guys all know I watch these polls like a hawk, and you know, for me, I don’t look at numbers but rather the trends. From what I am seeing, every trend in every key state now favors Trump. If this holds, I think Trump could have a landslide win in terms of the Electoral College, but I don’t see him winning the popular vote, at least not yet. I am still a bit away from making a prediction, and that may not honestly come until just a few days before the election. But I believe Harris is in trouble right now and unless a major splash hits the news cycle, she is going down in flames.
