The second presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris failed to provide a significant boost to the Democratic candidate's polling numbers.
According to Breitbart News, Politico's polling experts have acknowledged that the debate did not result in the anticipated surge for Harris. This analysis contradicts claims made by some media outlets suggesting a substantial increase in support for the Vice President following the debate.
Politico's Steven Shepard reported that surveys indicate only a slight bump for Harris, with national polls showing her lead growing by approximately 1 percentage point since the debate. Even after incorporating new surveys from NBC News and CBS News, which gave Harris a mid-single-digit lead, her national advantage remains modest.
The impact of the debate appears even less significant when examining battleground state data. Recent polls from key swing states reveal that Harris's lead remains small and potentially vulnerable.
In the seven core battleground states, Harris holds average leads of 1 point or greater in only two. The other five states show at least one polling average with the race within a single point, underscoring the tight nature of the contest.
This minimal movement in battleground states is particularly noteworthy, given the historical tendency of polls to underestimate Trump's support in recent elections. The lack of a substantial post-debate boost for Harris in these crucial areas could be a cause for concern among Democratic strategists.
Contrary to expectations of a Harris surge, several post-debate polls indicated favorable results for Trump. Five polls conducted after the debate showed either Trump leading or tied with Harris in various national and state-level matchups.
These polls, which included surveys from Siena/New York Times, Emerson, Washington Post, Cygnal/Carolina Journal, and Rasmussen, were conducted during the second Trump assassination attempt on September 15. It's worth noting that the full impact of this event may not have been captured in these polls, suggesting the possibility of even more favorable numbers for Trump in the coming weeks.
More recent polling data continues to show positive trends for the former president. RMG Research released a survey with a large sample size on Friday, indicating a two-point net national swing in Trump's favor since the debate and the assassination attempt.
Furthermore, Monday's New York Times/Siena College presidential election polling revealed Trump surging to a five-point lead in Arizona, maintaining a four-point lead in Georgia, and holding steady in North Carolina. These results underscore the challenges Harris faces in her bid for the presidency.
The current polling landscape presents a difficult mathematical equation for Harris to secure victory in November. Trump's leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, if maintained, would be sufficient to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory, even without winning Nevada or Michigan.
An Emerson poll further complicates Harris's path, showing Trump winning in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. This scenario would secure Trump's victory without requiring wins in North Carolina, Nevada, or Michigan.
The second presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris did not provide the expected boost to Harris's campaign, as acknowledged by Politico's polling experts. Post-debate polls have shown minimal gains for Harris, particularly in crucial battleground states. Recent polling trends indicate favorable results for Trump, including leads in key swing states.
